2023-06-14 14:44:19
Israel sees the Iranian presence in Syria as a direct danger. A view from the Golan Heights towards the border with Syria, December 2022 (Photo: Michael Giladi / Flash 90)
Iran sees its presence in Syria and Lebanon as part of a long-standing strategy of keeping the confrontation front with the US and Israel away from its borders; Israel sees the Iranian presence in Syria as an opportunity to harm Iranian interests without entering into a direct conflict with Iran.
This is the main claim inArticle Recently published by Mahmoud Al-Bazi in the “Al-Jazeera Institute for Policy”, which explains how Syria became a “grey area” of conflict between Iran and Israel, what is known in the military lexicon as Israel as Air Force Base, a battle between the wars.
According to the article, the roots of the deep connection between Syria and Iran go back to the days of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, and since then they have been getting tighter, despite the differences in the nature of the regimes in Tehran and Damascus.
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According to the article, the roots of the deep connection between Syria and Iran go back to the days of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, and since then they have been getting tighter, despite the differences in the nature of the regimes in Tehran and Damascus.
Al-Bazi claims that immediately after the revolution in Iran, the new regime realized that the previous regime had bequeathed it weapons that were mostly obsolete, especially airplanes. Therefore, the regime thought it would be better to move the battlefield with the US and Israel beyond Iran’s borders, a doctrine that was called “front-line defense”. The relocation of the battlefield was done through alliances with non-state groups and with armed militias established to conduct the war on the front lines.
The good relations started decades ago. President Bashar al-Assad with Iran’s spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, May 2022 (Photo: CC BY 4.0)
Based on this strategy, Iran helped establish and nurture Hezbollah as a loyal ally and as a forward force against Israel. Iran also reaped the fruits of the American invasion of Iraq, which resulted in the establishment of a Shiite government that won its support. Iran also took advantage of Saudi Arabia’s mistakes in Yemen to establish the position of the Houthis as a force that threatens Saudi interests in Yemen and abroad. Iran, writes Al-Bazi, would not have been able to reap such successes without the mistakes of its opponents.
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Khamenei against direct confrontations
Al-Bazi also points out that Iran avoids entering into direct conflicts with other countries. Thus, for example, when the Taliban forces attacked the Iranian consulate in Mazar Sharif in Afghanistan, the spiritual leader Ali Khamenei firmly refused to go to war against Afghanistan. Even when the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, Khamenei behaved in a similar way: he preferred to concentrate on achieving the ultimate goal – the removal of American forces from the region – over revenge.
Following the blockade and sanctions imposed on Iran, Al-Bazi says, it directed resources to develop an independent industry, in particular the arms industry. Indeed, its defense industry is thriving. According to media reports and according to the estimates of many experts, Iran has made a leap forward in the production of weapons, especially UAVs, cruise missiles and also advanced air defense systems.
It was recently announced that Russia, a military power in its own right, is using UAVs supplied by Iran in its war in Ukraine. If the reports are true, this indicates progress made by Iran in this area.
Back to Iran-Syria relations. The first milestone in this relationship, writes Al-Bazi, was recorded in the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988. Unlike most Arab countries, Syria actually supported Iran, although this angered some Arab countries, primarily Saudi Arabia, who stood by Saddam Hussein for fear that the regime The new revolutionary in Tehran will threaten their stability.
The alliance with Hezbollah strengthened Iran. Hezbollah flag in southern Lebanon (upyernoz CC BY 2.0)
The First Lebanon War in 1982 also strengthened the alliance between Syria and Iran. Syria, which was then the ruling power in Lebanon, gave Iran a foothold in Lebanon and allowed the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to operate in the country. The presence of the Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon gave a boost to the new organization that appeared on the Lebanese map after the PLO left the country – Hezbollah.
The Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 led to the strengthening and raising of Hezbollah’s horn. The regional events that took place afterwards – first and foremost the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 – further strengthened the alliance between Syria and Iran. Beyond their hostility towards Israel and the US, Syria and Iran fostered common interests and mutual dependence between the two countries.
Syria first
The events of the “Arab Spring” in Syria only strengthened these relations. Both Tehran and Hezbollah estimated that the fall of the Assad regime – which many at the time estimated that its days were numbered – would deal a fatal blow to the interests and strategy of both. That is why Iran and Hezbollah came to the aid of their old ally.
While Hezbollah sent troops and intervened in the battles in an open and declared way, the Iranian involvement wore the guise of military advice. However, as the civil war in Syria intensified, and as more and more countries from the Middle East and elsewhere intervened in it, the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah deepened.
The importance of Syria in Iran’s eyes reached such a point that Mehdi Taib, former head of intelligence in the Revolutionary Guards, stated that if Iran had to choose between defending Syria and defending Iranian territory that would be attacked, priority would be given to defending Syria.
They fear Iranian weapons for Syria. An Israeli soldier on patrol along the border with Syria in the Golan Heights, January 2022 (Photo: Michael Giladi / Flash 90)
As far as Israel is concerned, Al-Bazi writes, Iranian entrenchment in Syria is dangerous in several respects: with the help of its presence in Syria, Iran can complete a land bridge that will connect it to Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Syria; This presence may push Syria to open a front against Israel in the Golan; And Hezbollah may strengthen thanks to advanced Iranian weapons systems it will receive, such as surface-to-air missiles and precision missiles.
However, Israel, says Al-Bazi, acts according to a similar logic. It fears a direct confrontation with Iran, both because it may pay a heavy price without achieving its goals, and also because it cannot make such a move without a green light from the US. Therefore, it prefers to “hit the octopus arms” of Iran in Syria, without hitting the body of the octopus .
Israel’s goals
Al-Ghazi points out that in 2023 the Israeli attacks against military targets in Syria are getting more and more intense. Most of the attacks are aimed at military airports: the airport at the T4 base, west of the city of Tadmor, and the A-Daba airport near the town of al-Kusir, close to the Lebanese border, where forces of the Revolutionary Guards, the Quds Force, and Hezbollah are stationed.
After the visit of the Syrian Defense Minister to Iran at the end of January 2023, Iranian military commanders stated that it is necessary to perfect Syria’s air defense system to make it difficult for the Israeli Air Force to bomb there, and that the Syrian Air Force planes should be equipped with smart bombs.
Al-Bazi concludes from this that the Iranian officers operating in Syria are experts in the field of air engineering and that they are helping to establish an effective air defense system and prepare infrastructure for UAVs. Some of the UAVs are transferred to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and some are kept in warehouses in Syria in preparation for the future confrontation with Israel. In Al-Bazi’s eyes, this is the reason for the Israeli attacks that try to disrupt the Iranian attempt to place in Syria “Hardad 15” missile batteries and other systems that are transferred to it by land, through the border with Iraq or by Iranian civilian planes landing in Damascus.
Repressing the opposition in Syria was an Iranian interest. A demonstration in the Doha area of Damascus in 2011 (Photo: shamsnn CC BY 2.0)
Another important development is the weakening of the Syrian presence in Syria. As you may recall, after the armed organizations of the opposition to the Syrian regime, including Daesh, took control of large areas in Syria and threatened the capital Damascus, joint forces of Syria, Iran and Russia (mainly through its air force) succeeded in repelling the rebels and returning most of the territories they had captured.
During this period, Russia served as a balancing factor between Israel and Iran in Syria. Following the coordination with Russia, Israel adopted a cautious policy towards the Iranians in Syria and avoided harming them directly and causing them casualties.
However, following the war in Ukraine, Russia vacated several bases it held in Syria in areas such as Daraa, Homs and Takia, and handed them over to the Revolutionary Guards. Relations between Russia and Israel have also been undermined in light of the fact that Israel tends to support Ukraine in the war against Russia.
Be that as it may, Tehran and Moscow have begun to promote an unprecedented security partnership. Beyond the UAVs that Iran provided to Russia, there was also talk of the possibility that Iran would provide Russia with ballistic missiles of its own production. In return, Russia increased military aid to Iran. It was announced in the media that Iran had purchased Sukhoi 35 fighter jets from Russia.
In other words: if in the last decade Russia served as a restraining factor that prevented a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria, says Al-Bazi, there is no guarantee that things will not get out of control and deteriorate into a direct conflict between Iran, Israel and the US.
Al-Bazi outlines three scenarios for such a deterioration: an attack on the American forces in northeastern Syria as part of the Iranian strategy to remove the American army from the country; A direct attack on targets in Israel using drones or ballistic missiles, which will be launched from Syria or Lebanon; an attack on merchant ships and oil containers, owned by Israeli businessmen and Israeli companies, sailing in the Persian Gulf.
In Al-Bazi’s opinion, the parties will continue to exchange limited blows, and at the same time prepare for the big campaign. The Israeli attacks in Syria, he says, may well eventually lead to an all-out war between Israel and Iran.
Ghazi Abu Jayab Writer in the Ofek project, shared with the Van Leer Institute in Jerusalem, to the forum for regional thinking and to the center of Alam. The project makes available to Hebrew readers processed content from media websites, magazines, research and information centers and academic journals in Arabic.
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