Putin made the wrong decision of his life. A fateful decision that changed human history and put it on a different path, from which unexpected paths emerge. Undoubtedly the immortal saying “War – you know how you go in but you don’t know how you get out” proves itself time and time again. From our point of view – the mirages of history worked surprisingly in Israel’s favor this time.
That one decision by Putin, to attack Ukraine, brought Israel enormous strategic and security benefits, which could not have been anticipated in advance: international understanding of the importance of the unique military developments in which Israel is an expert – smart weaponry, attack drones, active defenses for armored forces as well as anti-missile missiles and against drones, to achieve victory on the modern battlefield. This understanding builds very high demands that have already started flowing into the Israeli defense industries. Europe’s critical need for natural gas has also increased the importance of Israel as a geographically close supplier, as a result of the huge reserves in its territory. In addition, the great wave of immigration that washes over us, when these waves always bring with them economic growth.
Another unexpected development resulted in the most serious damage that Iran inflicted on itself following its decision to join the “axis of evil” that supplies weapons that attack Ukraine. The consequences for it are weighty, starting from the neglect of the European and American desire to renew the nuclear agreement, through much more effective investigations aimed at preventing the leakage of critical Western technologies to its weapons industry, to renewed international pressure and a desire to increase economic sanctions on it.
The hijab protest and the collapse of the Iranian economy – this time a real alarm
Even before this decision, Iran faced the “hijab protest”. There have been protests in Iran in the past, some of them very violent, and the regime used an iron fist each time. But the hijab protest is more difficult to control, because it involves women and girls. The Iranian government initially let it develop, because the protest was mainly directed against the morality police, which was established in 2005 with the aim of arresting the violators of the Islamic dress code. But the protest became deep and wide and since the victims were mainly women and girls, the western world could no longer hold back. Some are now asking themselves if the Iranian regime is not actually riding on the back of a tiger. time will tell.
In fact, the ground in Iran is ripe for even more protests. The Iranian economy has been on the chicken’s knees for many years and large parts of the population are under the threat of starvation. Youth unemployment is about 25%. A third consecutive season of drought adds fuel to the fire, with an acute water shortage causing the abandonment of agricultural settlements across the republic and refugees arriving in the major cities. In addition, an inflationary spiral of more than 50% occurs, as a result of the increase in commodity prices and, ironically, the Iranians, the oil exporters, are oppressing the local population with the jump in energy prices for transportation and electricity.
Iran relies on importing food from abroad and its dwindling foreign exchange balances make it difficult. The currency has depreciated by 30% since September, as both the government and private importers face a financial crisis. Although food imports are exempt from American sanctions, their impact on Iran’s financial system has created complex payment arrangements with international companies. Reuters recently reported that 40 merchant ships carrying grain and sugar were stuck outside the major Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Bandar Imam Khomeini after weeks of payment delays.. The payment problems appear to have disrupted the flow of goods to Iran. Most ships carrying food, animal feed and commodities are paid in full, just before they dock to unload their cargo. If payment is not settled, the ships wait offshore and the stranded cargoes are estimated to be worth more than a billion dollars, with the cargo lessors facing delay costs and a loss of profit.
Iran is making its biggest strategic mistake
All this did not prevent Iran, a few months ago, from making a strategic decision that was very wrong for her, to say the least. They wanted to stick a finger in the eye of the western world again and to defy that they can do whatever they want. This time the Western world did not accept the finger in the eye in a sympathetic way, absolutely not. Providing attack tools to Putin and Russia whose goal is to destroy civilian strategic facilities in Ukraine, which has become the apple of the eye of the Western world, turns out to be a really bad idea for some reason.
In this way, Iran does obtain foreign currency, which it so badly needs, although it is probably in rubles – not necessarily a currency that passes to a merchant these days. It may also be hoping to gain intelligence and information that will improve its drone and drone capabilities on the battlefield. But Zelensky’s cries of despair following the relentless attacks by Iranian drones directed by the Russian military, which damage the electricity and water infrastructure of the citizens of Ukraine, were simply too much. to American and European ears. Finally, the token fell for them as to how lying and deceitful a country Iran is, surely following the endless denials that these drones and drones are not its own and that it did not sell anything to Russia. Come on. And that complicated them – big time.
After years in which the US and especially European countries did not religiously investigate, to put it mildly, the leakage of prohibited technological products into Iranian hands, the situation is now changing. Oleksi Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said that Iran is not capable of independently producing the drones The suicide bombers and that there are western elements in them. The engine of the Iranian drone Mohajer 6 manufactured by Rotaxa Quebec subsidiary of Bombardier. Because Canada is a member of NATO, the Canadian government, with the assistance of American and British intelligence, is now conducting an investigation into how Iran obtained these engines. Besides theMohajer 6another Iranian drone suspected of using a prohibited engine is theShahid 129which uses a Rotax 91 engine which is produced by another subsidiary of Bombardier And this time from Austria. In short, happy.
Network CNN recently published that an examination of the remains of Iranian drones that were shot down on Ukrainian soil revealed that they had installed components from at least 13 American companies that had already announced that they had never sold components for drones to Iran. According to the American intelligence assessment, of the 52 components that Ukrainian experts recovered from the Iranian drone, 136Shahed after all, apart from the USA, other components in the UAV were produced by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan and China.
And if all this is not enough, Iranian ballistic missiles may also be used on the Ukrainian battlefield. Russia is looking for missiles like the Iranian Fatah-110, to better deal with Ukraine’s increased air defense capabilities. Ballistic missile defense is a different game, much harder to crack. It will be difficult for Ukraine to defend against them. Currently, the best assistance in this regard are the Patriot missiles but they are also not magic for her air defense. In any case, the number of Patriot batteries in the U.S. inventory is limited and the size of Ukraine’s airspace poses special problems. The country has one of the largest airspaces in Europe, making it extremely difficult to defend. In addition, Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure is spread across the country, creating additional distress It is clear that Israel could have helped with its arrow missiles, for example, and perhaps also with David Sling missiles, but Israel has its own interests, which do not allow it to reach a high-intensity conflict with Russia.
In any case, following the enormous outrage built up in the West, the investigations this time will be much more effective and will touch the entire supply chain of drones, UAVs and missiles. It will now be much more difficult for Iran to obtain the critical means for it to build a technological array at a reasonable level in these areas and even for its nuclear program For many years, Israel was the only one who shouted that it was unthinkable that Iran would whistle at the world regarding the construction of long-range missiles. Now, when the Ukrainians are very disturbed by this development, it is suddenly important for the democratic administration in the USA, which has ignored Israel on this issue for the past two years, to try and block This path too.
All this works in Israel’s favor. The international sanctions have been threatening to drown Iran for a long time. It happens very slowly, maybe too slowly and so far she has managed to keep her head above water. Now it will probably just be to take a quick breath and dive again.
And what about Syria?
Some claim that now with the tightening of relations, Russia is going to give Iran a free hand in Syria, which could harm Israeli interests and endanger us. This is not a baseless thought, but Russian sensitivity to its Syrian assets is very high and it will probably not want to reshuffle the cards after a certain balance has already been achieved there that benefits it, following the decline of the civil war. It must be remembered that the strategic importance of Syria for it derives from military bases (Hamiim airport and the seaport in Tartus) that it holds in the country, which constitute its only outpost in the Mediterranean Sea. Freeing the Iranians to do as they please in Syria is a case in point for Israel and Russia has enough headaches anyway.
Dr. Adam Reuter – Chairman of Hysonim Finance, Chairman of Hedgewiz, co-author of the book “Israel’s Story of Success”