by Stefan Beig, October 4, 2024 Analysis and comments from Vienna
Five days after the National Council election, at least one thing seems certain: the winner of the election, the FPÖ, will not be the next Chancellor – although Herbert Kickl took first place for the Freedom Party for the first time in the Second Republic with its record increase of 12.6 percentage points. But Kickl’s harsh rhetoric and his tough stance on migration and asylum issues polarize many, including the political competition: No one wants to form a coalition with him. Therefore, many are currently assuming a traffic light government consisting of ÖVP, SPÖ and – most likely – NEOS. But: appearances are deceiving. The firewall against Chancellor Kickl could shake in a few weeks.
At the moment, it seems that the chancellor’s chair is out of reach for Herbert Kickl, especially because ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer can imagine a coalition with the FPÖ, but not with Kickl at the top, which he considers a “security risk ” and “a conspiracy theory. “. In addition, the opposition to the liberal Chancellor’s party at home and abroad would be huge.
The other parties strictly reject an alliance with the FPÖ. A three-party coalition would not have expected such violent protests. It would also be much more pleasing to the People’s Party: it could nominate the chancellor again.
Do a large number of voters really want an alliance between the FPÖ and the ÖVP?
In a democracy, however, the voter has the last word, and they could certainly punish the People’s Party for entering such a three-way alliance. On many important issues, the ÖVP overlaps more with the FPÖ than with the SPÖ in terms of content – and it is the content that matters most to voters. Austria is currently struggling with migration and an economic crisis, which some see as a loss of prosperity and an overtaxing of politics by a growing number of asylum seekers.
A FPÖ-ÖVP coalition will polarize, but broad support can be expected. Here are the election results and the poll numbers. By saying nothing to Chancellor Kickl, Nehammer could attract the anger of the conservative sections close to the ÖVP, who consider it the only obstacle to the creation of the most popular coalition version. If the ÖVP leader does not step down to pave the way for an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition, Kickl could accuse him of putting the fight for his political survival above the will of the voters.
Can a traffic light-Kcoalition work better in Austria than in Germany?
There is currently no chairmanship debate for the ÖVP or the SPÖ – despite poor election results. Nehammer also wants to continue. How he sets the course and how his partner reacts to it remains to be seen.
Especially hit: Even the SPÖ’s former finance minister Hannes Androch doubts about the stability of a three-party coalition. “We don’t want the German traffic light coalition again. If it doesn’t work there, the conditions here are even worse,” he told the “Kleine Zeitung”. In fact, there would be two electoral losers at the top, a great goal for Herbert Kickl: from the opposition bench, he could announce the true “Chancellor of the people” and rail against the establishment stronger than ever.
The state governors also have a say
So will the ÖVP choose blue and black for all these reasons?
Many disagree with this. Their main objections: “The chancellor’s chair is more important for the ÖVP and Herbert Kickl is far too predictable and too risky as chancellor. And if the Austrian traffic light coalition really falls in favor of the voters, the state governors could push to end the three-party coalition.” Then there would be new elections, perhaps with a political comeback from Sebastian Kurz.
That is possible. But it may not come that far. Because two crucial state elections are just around the corner, and both are threatened with a blue landslide victory: On October 13, the people of Vorarlberg will elect a new state parliament, and the Styrians will vote on November 24. With two FPÖ victories at the expense of the ÖVP, the People’s Party’s attitude towards a coalition with the FPÖ under Kickl could change faster than you think. So: appearances can be deceiving. The firewall against Chancellor Kickl could shake in a few weeks. (by Stefan Beig, October 4, 2024, analysis and comments from Vienna)
Time.news Interview: Exploring Austria’s Political Landscape Post-Election
Interviewer: Stefan Beig, Editor of Time.news
Guest Expert: Dr. Maria Klein, Political Scientist at the University of Vienna
Stefan Beig: Welcome, Dr. Klein, and thank you for joining us. It’s been five days since the National Council election, and the political atmosphere in Austria is charged. The FPÖ has made headlines with an impressive electoral win. What does this record increase signify for the Freedom Party and for Austrian politics in general?
Dr. Maria Klein: Thank you for having me, Stefan. The 12.6 percentage point increase for the FPÖ signals a significant shift in voter sentiment, reflecting growing concerns about migration and economic uncertainty. Herbert Kickl’s hardline approach has clearly resonated with a substantial segment of the electorate, which illustrates how polarization is becoming a defining feature of our political landscape.
Stefan Beig: Indeed, but despite this victory, it seems unlikely that Kickl will assume the Chancellor’s role. Why are other parties so resistant to forming a coalition with him?
Dr. Maria Klein: That’s a crucial point. Many political leaders, including ÖVP’s Karl Nehammer, see Kickl as a “security risk,” due to his extreme rhetoric and controversial policies. This perception extends beyond party lines—there’s a palpable fear of backlash both domestically and internationally if an FPÖ-led government were to take office. Essentially, the fear of losing public support is forcing politicians to reconsider any association with Kickl.
Stefan Beig: So, a traffic light coalition consisting of ÖVP, SPÖ, and possibly NEOS appears to be on the table. However, will such a coalition hold? The SPÖ’s stability has been questioned, notably by former finance minister Hannes Androch. What are your thoughts on this?
Dr. Maria Klein: There’s skepticism regarding the durability of a three-way coalition, particularly given the differing priorities and ideologies of the parties involved. While they share some common ground, the risk of discord always looms large. If the coalition tries to tackle pressing issues such as migration while also addressing economic challenges, it could either unify them or drive them apart, depending on how they navigate their policy differences.
Stefan Beig: Based on current sentiments, do you think many voters are truly in favor of an alliance between the FPÖ and the ÖVP?
Dr. Maria Klein: It’s a mixed bag. While there is a faction within the electorate that desires this alliance—largely due to overlapping views on migration and economic policy—it is also fraught with risk. Voters will punish the ÖVP if they perceive the alliance as a betrayal of democratic principles. Ultimately, the ÖVP must tread carefully to balance party survival with public sentiment.
Stefan Beig: As we look ahead, is it realistic to expect that a traffic light coalition in Austria could function better than its German counterpart?
Dr. Maria Klein: That’s an intriguing prospect. Austria’s political context is different; our parties frequently shift alliances based on the electorate’s mood. If the leadership is pragmatic and responsive to the pressing issues of the day, there’s potential for a successful coalition. However, historical precedents suggest that such arrangements can devolve into finger-pointing and blame games, leading to instability.
Stefan Beig: So, if Nehammer does not step down, could this create an opening for Kickl to criticize him?
Dr. Maria Klein: Absolutely. If Nehammer clings to his position while the alternative coalition with FPÖ remains viable, he risks being seen as prioritizing self-preservation over representing voters’ wishes. Kickl is likely to capitalize on this, which could further polarize the electorate and complicate the already intricate political dynamics.
Stefan Beig: Thank you, Dr. Klein, for your invaluable insights into the evolving political situation in Austria. Your expertise helps us understand not only the immediate implications of these elections but also the long-term trajectory of Austrian politics.
Dr. Maria Klein: Thank you for having me, Stefan. It’s always a pleasure to discuss these vital topics. Let’s keep a close eye on how these developments unfold in the coming weeks.
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The discussion helps illuminate the complex interplay of voter sentiment, party dynamics, and the precarious nature of coalition politics in Austria, setting the stage for potential future developments.
