Donald Trump is only exploiting the vulnerabilities of the American democratic system. In my view, the biggest problem with the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol was not the — admittedly terrifying — violence of that act, but the way it contrived behind the scenes to overturn Joe Biden’s victory.
He tried to exploit the ambiguities of the electoral law and to pressure the States to change the results, which were however the expression of the majority of the people. It is a new and very dangerous authoritarianism for the country.
A negative partisanship that weakens democracy
The problem goes beyond Donald Trump. Many people around him and Republican leaders have pursued the same goal as him. If he disappeared from the political scene tomorrow, the danger would remain because the will to question democratic norms persists. Until now, these were accepted by all. Today, the consensus is being eroded in part because of the changing nature of partisan identification in the United States over the past three decades.
Unlike Europe, where membership of a party is linked to ideology and social class, this depends largely on affect on the other side of the Atlantic: people identify as a democrat or a republican more because we hate the other party than for public policy reasons. This has given rise to a negative partisanship that weakens democracy: the base hates the other camp so much that it is ready to support openly authoritarian actions to come to power.
The incentives that lead people to think like this are not about to change. As long as the media, social networks, conspiracy sites and political figures are financially and electorally rewarded for blowing the embers, I will be fatalistic about the direction of the country. Moreover, I do not see how to change this system. We are not going to delete Facebook or Twitter! The only way to make a difference would be to legislate, but the laws will have to be passed by the same people who profit from the situation!
An influence that varies from state to state
Three months before the mid-term elections (“ midterms “), which will see a partial renewal of Congress, Donald Trump retains an undeniable influence on the Republican electorate. Just look at the percentage of those who believe his lies on the 2022 ballot. They are now 65-70%!
Its influence varies from state to state. It will be stronger in Wyoming, a rural state, than in Georgia, where the urban electorate of the suburbs (“ suburbs ”) is more important. But in general, the candidates supported by Donald Trump during the party’s midterm primaries are performing well across the country. His supporters listen to him, trust him and follow him.