Thursday March 17, during a press conference during which he presented the main lines of his program for his re-election, Emmanuel Macron repeated several times his objective of achieving “full employment”. An achievable goal by following the line he has led since 2017, he hammered, and which would have borne fruit in terms of reducing unemployment. Is this really the case? If the figures prove him right, they mask significant inequalities. Explanations.
What he said
“The unemployment rate has reached its lowest level in fifteen years. The youth unemployment rate, its lowest level for forty years, and the highest activity rate since it has been measured. »
which is rather true
- Unemployment at lowest since 2008
Emmanuel Macron had already affirmed, in November 2021, that the unemployment rate had never been so low in fifteen years. The figures always give him rather right, if we stick to the evolution of the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labor Office (ILO), “benchmark indicator for analyzing changes in the labor market”as noted by the Ministry of Labor.
The unemployment rate in France fell by 0.6 points in the fourth quarter of 2021 to concern 7.4% of the working population, according to the latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). This is indeed the lowest unemployment rate for fifteen years, or almost, since we have to go back to 2008, fourteen years ago, to find a rate below 8%. “The four previous quarters, it had remained almost stable, between 8.1% and 8%. It is 0.8 points lower than its pre-crisis level (end of 2019) and its lowest level since 2008, if we exclude the occasional fall in trompe-l’oeil in spring 2020, linked to the health crisis »details INSEE.
- The participation rate broke the 1975 record
Regarding the activity rate, which measures the proportion of the active population (employed as unemployed) compared to the total population, the current President of the Republic also says rather true.
Indeed, this indicator reached in the third quarter of 2021 “its highest level since INSEE measured it (1975)”, at 73.5% of the population, details the Institute. However, it fell by a minimum in the last quarter of 2021 to around 0.2%.
What deserves to be nuanced
- Unemployment rate for young people far from records…
On the other hand, the president-candidate plays on the numbers when he asserts that the youth unemployment rate “reaches its lowest level for forty years”.
If we look at the annual average youth unemployment rate, it has fallen significantly over the past five years, from 26% in 2016 to 18.9% in 2021, according to INSEE data. But it remains much higher than in 1975 (7.9%), than in 1990 (16.8%), or, more recently, in 2002 (17.8%). From this point of view, it would have been more correct to say that the youth unemployment rate is at its lowest for nineteen years.
To agree with Mr. Macron, we must look not at the annual average of unemployment among the youngest, but at its quarterly average. Indeed, in the last quarter of 2021, unemployment among 18-24 year olds fell by 3.6 points to 15.9%, a level not reached since the first quarter of 1981 (15.3%).
This decrease is to be linked to a clear increase in the number of beneficiaries of work-study contracts since 2016, a trend that has “even accelerated between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021”, notes INSEE in a note on the economy published in March. It can be explained by various reforms: financial aid for apprentices, increased support for hiring and measures aimed at simplifying the use of apprenticeships for employers. These young work-study trainees contribute to reducing the youth unemployment rate since they are considered to be “employed workers” within the meaning of the ILO. Between the end of 2015 and the end of 2021, the youth employment rate increased by 5.3 points, of which 2.9 points are attributed to work-study contracts.
The picture of falling unemployment hides strong inequalities. Unemployment among the youngest 15-24 year olds remains very high, at 18.9%, compared to 23.5% at the start of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term. This is 3.3 times higher than the unemployment rate for people aged 50 or over.
And the trend is not going in the right direction: between the beginning of October and the end of December 2021, the proportion of 15-29 year olds who are neither in activity nor in training rose again (+ 0.5 points) to settle at 12.2%, and return to its pre-crisis level (12.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019).
- The number of unemployed remains at a high level
Even though it has begun to decline significantly over the last three quarters, the number of unemployed remains at a high level. There were 3.336 million job seekers without any activity (category A) at the end of 2021, a figure which rose to 5.659 million when including part-time job seekers (categories B and C). This is the lowest level reached since the end of 2012.
- A rising “unemployment halo”
INSEE counts a “halo around unemployment”, grouping together people who have left the official count because they no longer meet the criteria for the definition of unemployment as defined by the ILO, although they are still looking for a job.
During the last quarter of 2021, this number rose slightly, returning to the pre-crisis level. There are thus 1.897 million inactive people who wish to work, but who are not considered to be unemployed because they do not meet the ILO criteria (do research, be immediately available).
- An explosion of micro-enterprises and precariousness
The drop in the unemployment rate also hides the emergence of a new form of precariousness: piecework, often described as the “uberization of society”, is one of the main economic markers of Macron’s five-year term.
This has indeed been characterized by the explosion of self-employment. In 2021, nearly a million businesses were created, including 641,000 micro-businesses, whose status is known for its instability (only a third survives after five years), its low remuneration (about 590 euros per month in average) and its vulnerability (in some cases, it is similar to concealment of salaried employment, often suffered).
- Uncertain prospects
Another cause for concern: despite the economic vigor of the post-Covid-19 recovery, the year 2022 could be difficult on the labor market, if we are to believe the French Observatory of Economic Conditions. In a note published in October 2021, the latter fears a slowdown in job creation and a rise in unemployment, which could reach 8.2% of the active population in France: “In 2022, job creations would be less sustained and the active population would grow faster than employment, which would result in an increase in unemployment (+45,000 unemployed at the end of the year compared to the end of 2021). The unemployment rate should therefore rise by 0.2 points. »