[Cet article est extrait du hors-série n°91 de Courrier international consacré à “la bombe démographique mondiale”].
In 2017, 1.05; in 2018, 0.98; in 2019, 0.92; in 2020, 0.84; in 2021, 0.81. This is the evolution of the fertility rate in the Republic of Korea. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the minimum fertility rate to maintain demographics would be 2.1, twice as high as the country’s current rate. Once the bar of 1 is crossed, the annual number of births can fall by half in thirty years. Below 1.3, the rate is considered extremely low, which has been the case for South Korea since 2002.
The phenomenon is all the more worrying as it has been going on for a long time and is getting worse at a faster rate than expected. In 2021, for the first time since the creation of the state in 1948, the population decreased [à environ 51 millions d’habitants aujourd’hui], a decrease which was only expected in 2029, or even in 2032, according to an estimate from 2016. It is announced that the course of 2030 will be catastrophic. Oxford’s Institute on Population Aging cited South Korea as the first country to disappear. Cho Young-tae, a demographer and professor at Seoul National University, says:
“A fertility rate below 1 has long been considered unlikely, barring an epidemic or war.”
He adds : “We do not immediately perceive the repercussions of the demographic decline on the economy and society, but when the critical threshold is exceeded, it is very difficult to act, and this seriously penalizes the quality of life of citizens. It is certain that South Korea has reached this threshold.”
A sudden fall
Around 1960, the country’s fertility rate was around 5 or 6. This was after the Korean War [1950-1953] and it was “normal” for a couple to have several children. Those born under the famous Dog sign of 1958 [selon l’astrologie chinoise] are more than a million and are part of the baby boomer generation.
The annual number of births exceeded the million mark several times until the beginning of the 1970s, then began to fall: it was, for example, 860,000 in 1980 and 650,000 in 1990. is about now