2024-07-10 04:37:37
He crossed the room like a shadow to answer the press. No talking on the platform, a simple two-story building on TF1. Marine Le Pen is very intelligent after the electoral blow received by the National Rally on Sunday evening. Due to the great popularity in the polls throughout the campaign, his camp ended up in the third place behind the New Popular Front and the presidential camp, and was confined to the opposition. But could this confusion be a blessing in disguise for the 2027 candidate? Here are five reasons to think so.
1. The “RN stream” continues to rise
Jordan Bardella’s party and its allies are far from the majority of votes promised to them during the campaign. The RN waves did not break on Sunday evening, but the tide continues to rise. Rally Country received 9.38 million votes in the first round, and even 10.65 million votes with friends Eric Ciotti. It also made unprecedented progress (33.22% at the national level), located first in 297 regions (compared to 110 in 2022 and only 20 in 2017) and is eligible in 485 out of 577 (compared to 208 in 2022).
Above all, the fire party and its allies won a record number of seats with 143 elected representatives (compared to 89 in 2022 and only 8 in 2017). “If we treat the depression of the majority, it is historical progress. We have Grand Slams in regions like Yonne, for example, and we are in the leading group in France in terms of votes, which gives a lot of hope for the future,” assured Julien Odoul, MP for this region . In their view, the election of 2027, but also the municipal elections of 2026, where the RN hopes to bring many cities to its hands.
2 The anti-RN presence is no longer hermetic
The withdrawals on the left and in the presidential camp make it possible to defeat RN candidates in many areas. But the “republican front” is not as hermetic as it was two years ago. Many political leaders, from Edouard Philippe to Bruno Le Maire, have put the RN and LFI on the back burner.
Overall, voters on the left stick together, but not those on the right, who often do want to vote RN in duels with NFP (and even LFI), according to an Ipsos survey. “This shows the reality of the so-called ‘Republican Front’,” said Julien Odoul. “In dozens of regions, we lost by a few hundred votes, these are circuses that we will be able to win soon.”
3. “Crash test” before 2027
Between the outbursts of racism and amateurism of some candidates, the time between the two rounds shows that the RN is still far from the renewal sold in recent years. Jordan Bardella also promised to sort out the “bad apples” for the next elections (even if some of them vote). Furthermore, the RN can (again) change its system by removing exclusions or unfair measures, such as banning “strategic” positions for dual nationals. Legislative elections would have served as a “crash test” to rectify the situation by 2027.
4. The strategic tie continues
In the meantime, the RN representatives will continue the chosen strategy from 2022: make as few waves as possible in the Hemicycle. Julien Odoul helped Julien Odoul: “It is certain that more voters chose to vote for us than Mélenchon’s soldiers who disturbed the National Assembly for two years. The current lopsided political situation, where no one has a majority, may also favor them.
5 “Old” Bardella that has expired.
A clear victory for the RN would have turned Jordan Bardella to the position of Prime Minister and complicated the task of Marine Le Pen to represent his camp in the presidential election 2027. The RN boss ran the campaign almost alone, following his victory in the European elections. To the point where some activists have imagined replacing Marine Le Pen for the next presidential election…
But the 28-year-old MEP gave a glimpse of some limits, during debates or through his program approach. “We always make mistakes, I made some, I take my share of responsibility for this result,” assured the person concerned. “Bardella stir” is now through electoral defeat. Marine Le Pen, in retreat in recent weeks, will not be able to be responsible for defeat this time. So he should take the torch, without much debate, in 2027.
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