2024-05-10 07:42:36
The results of the study surprised the country: 22 percent of all young people could imagine voting for the AfD. Now there are doubts about the data.
The results of a study on the political attitudes of young people have been criticized. According to the trend study “Youth in Germany,” which was published in April, a shift to the right is said to have affected German youth. Excitement about the study followed. Pollster and founder of the renowned Forsa Institute, Prof. Manfred Güllner, is now criticizing the survey, as the “Bild” newspaper reports.
Accordingly, the trend study at the time came to the conclusion that 22 percent of 14 to 29 year olds would vote for the AfD. Here you can read more about it. According to a study, in 2022 it was only nine percent. Now the question arises: Is the enthusiasm for right-wing extremism among young people really that great?
Pollster: “completely distorted result”
Güllner criticizes the methods of the trend study and calls them “sloppily carried out”. It has “methodological deficiencies” and shows a “completely distorted result,” said Güllner. Support for the AfD among young people is actually much lower. According to a Forsa survey, the AfD has 14 percent of young people – a full eight percentage points less than in the previous study. It should be noted that Forsa looked at the age group 18 to 29 years and not from 14 years.
For Güllner, the survey method in particular did not meet the scientific standard. “AfD supporters are more active online than sympathizers of other parties. That’s why they are generally overrepresented in so-called online panels, where you can register yourself as a participant. This distortion also means that the young people who are interviewed using such a panel are above average Supporter of the AfD,” said the 82-year-old to the “Bild” newspaper. “The 22 percent for the AfD is wrong.” The value is too high.
Güllner also criticizes the fact that the sum of the percentages in the study only comes to 99 percent. This is a “sign of a certain sloppiness in the study,” explains the Forsa founder. “You can’t simply leave out a whole percentage point from the total of all votes. Rounding errors of 0.1 percentage points can occur.”
“By no means claim to give an exact election forecast”
The study authors defend their study. “As authors of the ‘Youth in Germany’ trend study, we in no way claim to give an exact election forecast,” the authors told the “Bild” newspaper. It’s about “trends and capturing the mood of a target group.” According to the group of authors, they would rather recommend institutes like Forsa for accurate election forecasts.
The total of 99 percent was created by rounding to numbers without decimals, the authors said. “It is completely normal that in serious studies the values are rounded and then add up to 99% or 101%.”
In addition, Correctiv’s research into the AfD and similar exposes only became known after the “Youth in Germany” trend study was completed. The resulting demonstrations and loud dissenting voices would therefore have had no influence on the study results.
Nevertheless, pollster Güllner sticks to his criticism and considers the result to be “dangerous”. He told the “Bild” newspaper: “Political decision-making processes can be dangerously influenced on the basis of incorrect numbers, for example if one reacts incorrectly to supposedly excessive right-wing radical attitudes within the young population.”