Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba received an approval rating of around 50% in opinion polls conducted by major Japanese media outlets immediately after taking office. It was about twice as high as former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval rating right before he left office, but it was the lowest among Japanese prime ministers who took office in the 2000s.
In Japan, there is analysis that support among conservatives may have declined somewhat as a large number of conservative hardliners from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party were excluded from the selection of Prime Minister Ishiba’s first cabinet. Some say this reflects anxiety about the Ishiba administration as sensitive security issues, such as the revision of the U.S.-Japan Status of Agreement and the creation of the Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are receiving attention. Accordingly, the results of the general election held on the 27th are expected to be a decisive variable in the future stable operation of the Ishiba administration.
● Lowest approval rating among previous cabinets
According to the results of a public opinion poll reported by the Asahi Shimbun on the 3rd, Prime Minister Ishiba’s approval rating was 46%, twice higher than former Prime Minister Kishida’s last approval rating of 23%. In a Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll on the same day, Prime Minister Ishiba’s approval rating was 51%, more than double the approval rating (25%) of Prime Minister Kishida right before he left office. The Nippon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) opinion poll also showed 51%, and although it varies slightly depending on the survey agency, it is generally in the late 40% to early 50% range.
This is a fairly low level compared to the approval rating immediately after the Japanese cabinet was launched. The Asahi Shimbun diagnosed that “among the Japanese regimes launched in the 2000s, this is the second lowest level since Prime Minister Kishida took office (45%).” Even according to the Nikkei public opinion poll, it recorded the lowest level in the 2000s, even lower than when former Prime Minister Taro Aso (麻生太郞) took office (53% in 2008).
Although the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s cabinet approval rating has increased due to the ‘effect of replacing the prime minister’, there is still an atmosphere of tension. Although the possibility of a regime change between the ruling and opposition parties is slim, if the election results are worse than expected, the momentum of the newly launched Ishiba administration could be greatly weakened.
Shinjiro Koizumi, head of the Liberal Democratic Party’s election headquarters, said on this day, “I will let you know that we are not panicking about the approval ratings and are working sincerely to restore trust.” The Yomiuri Shimbun reported, “The ruling party is relieved that the approval rating exceeds 50%, but the effect of the new cabinet is limited, so caution continues about the general election on the 27th.”
● Cautious attitude toward ‘Asian version of NATO’
With public opinion poll results coming in lower than expected, ministers in the Ishiba administration are taking a cautious stance on issues that could be seen as radical.
He is also taking a step back on the ‘Asian version of NATO’, which was one of Prime Minister Ishiba’s representative pledges. It is judged that Prime Minister Ishiba’s plan could become a spark that worsens the situation in East Asia if opposition from Korea, which is concerned about Japan becoming a military power, and China, which has strong resistance to the movement to keep its country in check, intensifies.
Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya also spoke about the Asian version of NATO at a press conference the previous day, saying, “I think it is one of the future ideas, but we need to take time to review it in the mid- to long-term,” adding, “It seems like we are immediately imposing defense obligations on each other.” “It is quite difficult to establish an organization in Asia,” he said.
Prime Minister Ishiba was the first foreign leader to not mention the U.S.-Japan Status Agreement, which he had stated as his theory, when speaking on the phone with U.S. President Joe Biden. Prime Minister Ishiba has always pointed out that the U.S.-Japan status agreement is unequal, but in a situation where it is difficult for the U.S. to readily agree, if it is highlighted as a factor in the conflict between the U.S. and Japan, public anxiety may increase and lead to a decline in approval ratings.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ishiba is expected to announce his intention to solidify cooperation with Korea in his first National Assembly speech after taking office on the 4th. Prime Minister Ishiba is said to have included in his speech that he would further solidify Korea-Japan cooperation based on the relationship of trust built between President Yoon Seok-yeol and former Prime Minister Kishida.
Tokyo = Correspondent Lee Sang-hoon [email protected]
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2024-10-03 20:04:40