2023-11-05 07:12:15
Following the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7, Israel has every right to carry out a sustained military campaign to dismantle that terrorist group. And the Israelis are more than determined to do it. But they should also heed US President Joe Biden’s cautionary recommendations.
(Also: Israeli Ambassador responds to Petro on accusations of white phosphorus use in Gaza).
During his visit to Tel Aviv on October 18, Biden expressed his full empathy towards Israelis for the anger they feel. “I understand, as do many Americans,” she said. But she also advised them not to get carried away by their fury. “After 9/11, we in the United States were furious,” the president warned, “and although we sought and obtained justice, we also made mistakes.” Two days later, in a televised speech that aired in prime time, he reiterated his request that the Israeli government “not be blinded by fury.”
What would following Biden’s advice look like in practice? What lessons should the Israeli Government draw from the strategic mistakes that the United States committed after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?
Iraq and Afghanistan
First, while it is right for Israel to use its military capabilities to attack well-defined military targets (Hamas commanders, command centers, weapons depots, and tunnels), it should have no illusions that brute force can achieve political results. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States learned the hard way that superior military force can be useful in eliminating an adversary, but it rarely produces the desired political objective.
Despite two costly decades of American involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, the former has returned to the hands of the Taliban and the latter is mired in political dysfunction and community division. It is true that Israel has no choice but to use force against Hamas so that it can no longer do harm, but it must also employ other instruments (diplomacy, humanitarian aid, economic opportunities) to shape what comes next. .
(See: Israel says it will allow a brief evacuation of civilians in northern Gaza).
The day after
Second, although the Israeli military campaign is still in its early stages, the authorities need to start making plans for what the governance of Gaza will look like after Hamas. In Iraq and Libya, with the old order dismantled, the United States found itself ill-equipped to build something new, and chaos was the result.
Hence, Israel must think without delay about what it will do when the fighting stops. Will he turn to the Palestinian Authority to administer Gaza? What role will the United Nations have? Would it be better to form a coalition of goodwill actors (for example, the United States, the European Union, Egypt and Qatar) to take charge of reconstruction and governance, at least initially? These are questions that must begin to be asked and answered.
Third, while maintaining its strong military campaign against Hamas, Israel must, to the extent possible, avoid damage to the physical and institutional infrastructure of Gaza, otherwise it risks condemning the rest of the population. to prolonged suffering, and even social disintegration.
The United States made the mistake of dismantling Iraq’s governing institutions, setting the stage for chaos, the emergence of a tenacious Sunni insurgency, and the growing influence of Iran. And despite the bad results seen in Iraq, NATO destroyed the political foundations of Libya, giving rise to a failed State, exploited by extremist groups and suffering from very intense tribal divisions.
So if Israel causes widespread destruction in Gaza, more radicalism and extremist violence are likely to emerge from the rubble.
Finally, Israelis need to think long term and not forget that the US still suffers from the lasting damage of its strategic mistakes in the Middle East. The fall of the Iraqi government empowered Iran, which now has powerful proxies across the region, including Hamas. And after the American withdrawal, Afghanistan has become a humanitarian nightmare.
(You can read: Iran’s supreme leader threatens Israel: ‘She will be silenced in a matter of days’).
The world watches
The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Furthermore, the reputation of the United States has not yet recovered from the images of mistreatment of prisoners at Abu Ghraib, from reports about the CIA’s “harsh” interrogation techniques, from the indefinite detention of prisoners in Guantánamo (Cuba). ) and numerous drone attacks that claimed the lives of innocent civilians. These and other practices have forever tarnished the country’s image in the court of international opinion. A court in which Israel is already fighting an uphill battle.
Although Tel Aviv has the right to defend itself, and Hamas’ killings and kidnappings justify forceful retaliation, Israelis must do everything possible to comply with international humanitarian law. This involves minimizing the loss of civilian life and ensuring a constant flow of medicine, food and fuel to Gaza.
Such an exercise will calm the political rejection that will be generated by what is seen as a long Israeli campaign against Hamas. It will also make it less likely that the conflict will escalate into a regional war; will facilitate the continuity of the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan; and, finally, it will allow Israel and Saudi Arabia to resume talks for diplomatic normalization.
(More: Israeli Prime Minister denies possible truce in Gaza if Hamas does not release hostages).
The tenor of its future relationship with the Palestinian community will also depend on Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war.
The brutal attack by Hamas and the new round of violence it has generated highlights the unsustainability of the status quo ante. Because of the proximity in which they live, Israelis will never have security until the Palestinians also have it, and vice versa. At some point the two peoples will have to work together to ensure a two-state solution that brings lasting peace. Perhaps the tragedy of the current conflict can make both Israelis and Palestinians understand this reality.
CHARLES A. KUPCHAN
© Project Syndicate
Washington
Senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank focused on international relations based in New York. He is also a professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and the author of ‘Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Protect Itself from the World.’ Oxford University Press, 2020.
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