Israel has entered a period of profound political uncertainty following the October 2026 parliamentary elections. The results failed to deliver a clear parliamentary majority to either the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanjahu or the opposition headed by Gadi Eisenkot. While the opposition has coalesced around Eisenkot, the path to a functioning government remains obstructed by deep-seated ideological divides and the complex role of Arab political factions.
The Parliamentary Stalemate
The election results left the 120-seat Kneset fractured. Prime Minister Netanjahu’s Likud party, alongside its ultra-Orthodox and far-right allies, secured 53 mandates. The opposition bloc, anchored by Eisenkot’s Jašar party, holds 48 seats. The remaining 19 seats were captured by Arab political formations. Because no camp reached the 61-seat threshold required to govern, President Isaac Herzog initiated consultations with party leaders, a process he is tasked with completing to avoid the prospect of repeat elections.
The political maneuvering has been marked by intense rhetoric. Supporters of Netanjahu have staged protests outside Eisenkot’s home, labeling him a “traitor” for keeping the door open to Arab participation in a future government. Meanwhile, the Likud party has accused Arab factions of “stealing” the election through irregularities, a claim that has further polarized the public discourse. Amid this, the Arab minority has maintained that they expect equal treatment, concrete improvements in daily life—such as funding for municipalities and the combatting of crime—and an end to systemic discrimination.
Shifting Alliances and the Arab “Kingmaker” Role
The role of Arab parties has proven to be a defining, if contentious, factor. In the current cycle, the opposition’s Arab-led United List and the Ra’am party have signaled a willingness to recommend Eisenkot for the premiership. This support has pushed the potential backing for Eisenkot to 67 seats, a mathematical majority that nonetheless masks significant internal friction.
For the opposition, this presents a complex dilemma,
as their ranks include figures ranging from the cooperative Jair Golan to the staunchly nationalist Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman, a key figure in Eisenkot’s path, has publicly stated he would support the opposition leader for prime minister, yet he remains a vocal opponent of any government dependent on Arab votes. As analyst Danny Citrinowicz observed, Netanjahu remains in a powerful position precisely because he has won by not losing,
and he may attempt to exploit these fractures to split the opposition or negotiate a broader, more favorable coalition.
Ultra-Orthodox Alliance Withholds Support over Military Service Exemptions
A significant blow to Netanjahu’s prospects arrived when the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) alliance—a pillar of his support since 1996—declined to recommend him to President Herzog. This shift is rooted in the failure to resolve the status of military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students, an issue that became acute after a 2024 Supreme Court ruling invalidated the previous legal basis for such exemptions. The UTJ’s decision to remain neutral leaves Netanjahu with a diminished base, even as he continues to serve as a caretaker prime minister.
Political Factions Weigh Cabinet Talks to Avert New Elections
President Herzog has urged all political factions to approach the consultation process with an “open mind” to prevent a return to the polls. The stakes extend beyond mere cabinet formation; the opposition has prioritized the establishment of a state commission to investigate the security failures of October 7, 2023, and aims to replace Kneset Speaker Amir Ohana to seize control of the legislative agenda. As the country waits for a resolution, financial markets have shown signs of volatility, with the shekel weakening as investors weigh the prospect of prolonged political deadlock against the resilience of the national economy.