Israel has issued a warning to Western powers, which are negotiating with Iran, that the loose line they are discovering will lead to the resumption of violence in the Arab Gulf and the Middle East, Israel Today has learned.
The assessment in Israel regarding the deterioration in the situation was transferred following the preliminary agreements reached over the weekend between Iran and the superpowers. It was agreed between the parties that the IAEA Board of Governors (International Atomic Energy Agency) would not convene any time soon. In return, Iran will install and reactivate IAEA cameras at the Karaj nuclear facility. The original cameras were destroyed, according to Iran, in an explosion that took place in Karaj in the summer and shut down the sophisticated hubs that operated in it.
In Israel, it is believed that the international agreement to give up the convening of the IAEA Board of Governors drops one of the last two cards left to the powers. Because the one who threatened to convene the IAEA Board of Governors is the US, while Russia is the one that achieved the point-by-point agreement of returning the cameras in exchange for removing the threat.
Israel believes that the consideration given by Iran, in the form of returning the cameras, is poor in relation to the commitment that the IAEA will not convene. In addition, the new agreement leaves the powers with only one card, International on Iran is weak, the reason being that the West does not want to deteriorate the situation vis-à-vis Iran in any way and is willing to do almost anything to do so.
In Israel, it is believed that it is precisely the soft approach of the superpowers, which are unwilling to draw a red line to Iran, that will lead to violence. The assessment in the political system is that if the talks do not resume or lead to an agreement, Iran will return to attacking international targets in the Arab Gulf and the Middle East. It will do so, Israel believes, to deter the West from imposing new sanctions on it, and to improve positions in talks.
On the other hand, they are convinced in Jerusalem that if the superpowers had drawn a hard line against Iran, it would have been the one who would have been flexible and careful about stretching the rope. “The international community has a heavy sword to threaten Iran with, but it is afraid to use it and therefore does not wave it,” an Israeli source described the situation.
It is estimated in Israel that if talks with Iran collapse, the region will go through a turbulent period of crisis, including Iranian damage to ships and the resumption of attacks on international facilities.
Meanwhile, after less than a month, the seventh round of nuclear talks in Vienna ended in a dead end. Although both sides have tried to convey optimism, it seems that the gaps between the parties are serious, and it is not clear at the moment when the eighth round will take place. The announcement of the end of the round stemmed from a request by the head of the Iranian negotiating team, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bakri Kani, to stop the talks and return to Tehran – according to European sources who spoke with IP.
They described the move as a “disappointing halt” and warned again that “Iran’s nuclear program is in its most advanced state ever, and there are only weeks left before the benefits of a return to the agreement fade.”
They added that although no breakthrough had been achieved, both sides reported “technical progress”. An American source who spoke to EP also said that the round was “below expectations, and we are currently in a state of uncertainty about our ability to arrive in the short time we have left.”
Enrique Moreh, who is in charge of conducting talks on behalf of the European Union, as well as conveying the messages to the non-American side, said: “We have a lot of work ahead of us, the task is very complex for the next round.” The Iranian deputy foreign minister, who heads the Iranian negotiating team, said it was a break of several days, and the Chinese representative for the talks also noted that “the hope is to resume talks before the new year,” but a teacher was less optimistic.
At the same time, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, convened a press conference on Friday at which he first presented the cameras to be installed at the Baraj site, following a temporary agreement reached with Tehran to renew supervision at the site. “Very strange” that Iran was unable to retain the information that was in the cameras damaged in the attack.
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