Yesterday something happened in the Middle East. For the first time, the Iranian regime of the Ayatollahs changed its approach and attacked directly from Iranian territory with hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, instead of using only its emissaries. According to Iranian leaders, the attack came as a response to the attack attributed to Israel on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus, in which the Quds commander in Syria and Lebanon, who was Responsible for many terrorist attacks on Israel and when he was killed, he was involved in the planning of the next moves. Iran’s branches in Lebanon joined the attack and fired and launched over a hundred missiles and drones into the Golan.
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It is important to clarify that the building that was attacked was not the Iranian embassy, but a Quds Force building near the embassy, which was used for terrorist activity. In addition, it is important to mention that Iran was the one behind the barbaric attack on 7/10, in which Khamenei used (even if he did not explicitly suggest) “weapons of mass diversion”, in order to advance his plan to build “weapons of mass destruction”. Iran financed, trained and equipped Hamas with the bulk of the weapons used to attack Israel, therefore the Israeli attacks against Iranian interests in Syria and Lebanon, if Israel did attack, are justified by any measure.
During the attack Israel proved again, and to a greater extent than ever before, its defense capabilities. The multi-layered array for active defense that includes the “Iron Dome”, “Magic Wand” “And the Arrow”, and other layers of protection, performed its task well beyond the specifications promised by the systems thinkers and the industries that built them, in cooperation with Mapa’at/Homa and the agency For missile defense, the MDA in the US. The systems intercepted over 95 percent of the threats, and those individuals who penetrated the “Iron Curtain” did not cause significant damage.
At the same time, this fact and the fantastic capabilities that have been demonstrated do not in any way diminish the audacity of Iran and its deviation from all the rules. As is usually depicted pictorially, Iran, which is the head of the octopus/lion/snake, has so far chosen to use its long arms and was ready to sacrifice them. For the first time, Iran acted on its own and on its own. The time has come to activate the fundamental change that appears in the new national security concept published by Netanyahu in 2018 and hit the head of the octopus and not just its arms.
In recent hours voices have been heard claiming that the response must be commensurate with the damage caused by the attack, and there is no bigger mistake than that. Israel can indeed decide, for various reasons, on a more measured response, but the response must not have anything to do with the results of the attack.
Interception of Iranian missiles (Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen)
Israel must decide on its own the nature of the response and its timing, even if it chooses to update its plans with its great friend the USA, which actively and effectively participated in the defense efforts, alongside Britain.
Israel must not fall into the trap of American pressure and/or temptation not to respond. President Biden continues his method according to which he supports Israel with weapons and political aid, but refrains from offensive activities, as all he cares about is reaching the November elections as quietly as possible. This is how it is in Gaza and the north, this is how it is in front of the nuclear program and it seems that he is trying to act this way now as well. At the same time, Defense Minister Austin is also putting pressure on Minister Gallant, probably with temptations and promises of assistance. Israel must not fall into this “honey trap”. The whole world, but especially Nasrallah, Sinwar and, of course, Khamenei, are looking through a magnifying glass at the Israeli response and the lack of a significant response will be interpreted in their eyes as weakness and surrender to American dictates, and this will immediately affect their behavior in Gaza, in Lebanon, in the nuclear and, unfortunately, also on the chance of returning the abductees home.
There are several Iranian formations in which Israel can and should focus its response. The Israeli response must come, even if not immediately (the Iranians should also be anxious and on the defensive, as Israel was last week). As the first priority, Israel must damage the building of capabilities directed against it, ie the development and production plants of the drones, cruise missiles and UAVs and the places where they are stored. Beyond that, Israel can direct its response to Iranian factories and infrastructure facilities (without affecting the global economy and oil prices) such as ports, oil and gas refining and storage facilities, transmission pipelines, and more.
In addition, it is important to remember that Tehran is advancing towards nuclear capability with each passing day, therefore the attack must include the nuclear facilities, in some way, even if it is not massive and will be used to convey a message of Israeli capabilities.
Although Israeli attention, which for the past decades has been focused on delaying progress in the production of fissile material, must shift to harming the development capabilities of the weapons system and the leading scientists, weakening the regime and neutralizing the new underground facility near Natanz, but these will probably be activities that Israel will keep for the future and will not be included in the response to the attack the current one, in light of the need for appropriate preparation.
Finally, Israel must consider harming, even if symbolically, the symbol of the Iranian regime or rule, in order to send a clear message to the regime and its leaders about Israel’s capabilities and its long arm. The priorities must be a response to the attack while at the same time keeping an eye on Gaza, where the goals of the war must be completed, and the north, where we must build a capacity to safely return the evacuees, but the overarching goal must remain preventing the Iranian plan to take advantage of the chaos to reach a nuclear weapon.
Tehran has been building a “ring of fire” around Israel for years, the mistake it made in the last attack must cost it damage inside Iran and the beginning of the ring of fire. Israel will probably stand alone in the offensive response against Iran, it is important to inform the US, but not to submit to its dictates.
Brigadier General (Res.) Yaacov Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as a national security advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as the actual head of the national security staff