In the coming period, Israel is reaching a complex decision-making juncture, both in the northern and southern arenas. In Gaza, the IDF is recording significant achievements on the ground, and one of the approaches in the security system claims that continued pressure and time will lead to deepening the achievements. An opposing approach claims that the timetables are now working to the detriment of Israel, both in the political dimension and in the question of the abductees, and therefore the manner of operation in the Strip must now be changed significantly. The commanders in the field are very satisfied with the operational successes that the IDF registers in almost every encounter, but continuing the operation in the current manner will probably require a very long time, and Israel needs at least a “strategic achievement” in Gaza and not just tactical successes.
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Israel’s strategic entanglement is even more acute in the north. There too, from a tactical point of view, in almost every battle the relative advantage is in favor of the IDF and against Hezbollah. The number of casualties in the ranks of the Shiite terrorist organization is relatively high, and Nasrallah is losing important assets. On the other hand, Hezbollah is the one who dictates the pace and has created a de facto security zone inside Israeli territory .
At the same time as the mediation attempts of the American envoy Amos Hochstein, in recent weeks Israel has increased the pace and intensity of its operations in Lebanon, in an attempt to break out of the current stalemate. For the time being, the equation that Hezbollah manages to create is that as long as there is fighting in Gaza, the fighting will continue in the north as well, and Israel has not yet managed to get the Lebanese organization out of balance on this issue.
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There is no doubt that the Iranian “axis of resistance” recognized Israel’s strategic weakness on the eve of the decision to launch the surprise attack on October 7. In the months leading up to the massacre in the south, Hezbollah’s security also increased, which led, among other things, to the attack in Megiddo and other incidents, and as a result, Defense Minister Yoav Galant alerted at the time and presented a “strategic warning”, according to which the countries of the Iranian axis recognize a weak point of Israel.
The assassination of Hezbollah senior Jawad al-Tawil (Photo: Arab Networks)
However, there are no indications that there was an organized and concrete plan by Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the other Axis companies for a combined attack. In the end Yahya Sinwar surprised Hezbollah by deciding to launch a major attack on Simchat Torah, Hamas, according to foreign publications, informed the Lebanese terrorist organization very shortly about the intention to do so. With this request, Hamas called on Nasrallah to join a parallel attack in the north, but as we know the request was not fully answered and Sinwar in many ways found himself fighting alone on October 7th.
On the other hand, in the weeks and months after October 7, Sinwar actually succeeded in dragging the entire axis into an active confrontation with Israel – in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other arenas. It is estimated that all of these considerations led Nasrallah to the current situation, where Hezbollah is waging a large-scale war with Israel. However, for the time being, a full-scale war has been avoided. Hezbollah succeeds in inflicting severe damage on Israel, but the current war is also significantly harming it and the IDF is causing it to lose significant assets, especially in southern Lebanon and in the critical areas near the border.
Documentation of the activities of the combat team of the 646th Brigade in the Gaza Strip (photo: IDF spokesperson)
Therefore, the questions now facing the decision makers are difficult: can the tactical achievements be turned into a strategic achievement, and how to avoid entanglements and risks as a result. The answers to these questions are also related to the issue of “the day after” in Gaza, and as the government struggles to make decisions on this matter as a result of political considerations, the reality on the ground becomes more complicated and political tensions – including with the United States – increase.