Although advances in medicine have increased human life expectancy, research has shown that it will be difficult for today’s children to live to the age of 100.
On the 8th (local time), Professor Jay Olshansky’s team at the University of Illinois at Chicago released the results of analyzing mortality data from 1990 to 2019 in eight countries with the highest life expectancy, including Korea and Japan, as well as Hong Kong and the United States. This study was published in the latest issue of the scientific journal ‘Nature Aging‘.
As a result of the research team’s analysis, in the 1990s, due to advances in public health and medicine, especially in high-income countries, neonatal and infant mortality rates, as well as mid-life and old age mortality rates, decreased, and life expectancy increased by about 3 years every 10 years.
If this trend continues, it is calculated that most children born in the 21st century will live to be over 100 years old.
However, as the 20th century began, the increase in life expectancy gradually slowed, and the slowdown became more evident after 2010. Accordingly, the probability of a child born in 2019 reaching the age of 100 was 5.3% for women and 1.8% for men.
In particular, the decline in life expectancy in the United States was noticeable. In the United States, the probability of those born in 2019 living to age 100 was 3.1% for women and 1.3% for men. The research team explained that this decline in life expectancy is due to “drug overdoses, shootings, obesity, and inequality in medical services.”
The research team said that unless the research makes it possible to control the speed of biological aging and fundamentally change the major factors that determine health and lifespan, it is impossible to dramatically extend lifespan within this century. It also said that in most countries, less than 15% of women and less than 5% of men are expected to live to age 100.
The research team said, “There is no evidence to suggest that lifespan will be significantly extended in the 21st century,” and “if this actually happens, there will need to be extensive institutional changes, including retirement planning and life insurance pricing.”
Choi Jae-ho, Donga.com reporter [email protected]
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2024-10-09 05:06:51