2023-10-23 19:47:51
Emmanuel Macron is expected in Israel on Tuesday October 24. A visit during which he must meet certain families of hostages, but also the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, General Yoav Galant and Yaïr Lapid, the leader of the opposition, as did many heads of state before him. “The president will likely have discussions with Arab partners in the region, including the president of the Palestinian Authority [Mahmoud Abbas]the king of Jordan [Abdallah II]the Egyptian president [Abdel Fattah al-Sissi] and Gulf partners »indicates the Elysée.
Visiting on Wednesday, Joe Biden notably succeeded in releasing humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, with the first trucks of food being able to pass through on Saturday. So why did Emmanuel Macron wait so long to move? What results does he want, he who swore he wanted to go there to “get useful things” ? According to the Elysée, the head of state has three objectives: to express the country’s solidarity with Israel and the French people of Israel and to show his commitment to the release of the hostages, to commit to curbing the escalation and avoiding generalization of the conflict, and get involved in the United Nations “to avoid a North-South confrontation”.
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Interview on this trip with Pascal Boniface, geopolitologist and director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
Why did Emmanuel Macron wait seventeen days after the Hamas offensive to travel to Israel?
Pascal Boniface. At the start, he certainly wanted to see how the situation developed. Then, it was difficult for him to travel to Israel at the same time as the American president since there is a sort of priority, the United States being a major player in the region.
However, it was difficult for Emmanuel Macron not to go. Particularly because of the links with Israel and because there are French people among the Hamas hostages. Although France has no relationship or direct contact with Hamas, therefore the release of the hostages does not depend directly on it. And I am not sure that possible pressure on Israel could be effective in obtaining more measured behavior from them, which is in compliance with international law.
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In summary, it is a trip that Emmanuel Macron is obliged to make to avoid people saying that France is absent from a major conflict, even though it is a member of the UN Security Council. Even if the country has been less active on the Israeli-Palestinian issue for a long time, and its weight in the region is not as strong as before. It is essential to go there to exist, but you have to remain modest about what you can obtain.
Emmanuel Macron repeated that he wanted to make this trip only if it made it possible to “obtain useful elements” for the region. What can they be?
In the best case scenario, he can have an influence on the attitude of the Israeli government regarding the continuation of the conflict and obtain the release of French hostages.
But we know very well that Israel listens very little to France. If security issues are at stake, Israel acts according to its imperatives. They may pay attention to what the United States says, but neither France nor the Europeans really have any influence on Israel’s behavior when it comes to peace and war. The president can at least try to avoid a massive Israeli operation in Gaza that would endanger the lives of the hostages.
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Concerning these prisoners held by Hamas, their release can only go through intermediaries who speak to the Palestinian Islamist group, therefore Egypt or Qatar. Perhaps Emmanuel Macron obtained guarantees from these countries so that his visit coincided with the release of hostages.
Concerning humanitarian aid, can the president obtain more than the passage of international aid to the Gaza Strip through Egypt?
After multiple pressures from Western countries, Emmanuel Macron could find himself in Israel at the right time and ensure that humanitarian aid can be provided on a larger scale.
Israel may find itself in more and more trouble if it does not allow humanitarian aid, which is requested by all UN agencies, to come in, even if Israel is not very concerned with the UN’s recommendations.
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Indeed, this could cause an image problem for Israel, and especially for Western countries allied with Israel, if the announced humanitarian catastrophe unfolded because humanitarian aid was not sent. Westerners fear that their image in the Arab and Muslim world will be damaged if they appear to be complicit in a humanitarian crisis.
Is it possible that Emmanuel Macron would travel to a country other than Israel, to Egypt or Lebanon for example?
If Emmanuel Macron only goes to Israel, this trip would seem unbalanced. He must at least go to an Arab country, to respect France’s traditional diplomatic attitude on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s a sort of diplomatic obligation for this trip to be seen as one that could bring calm and humanitarian aid, and not just be a trip in support of Israel.
The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, visited Israel on Saturday, sparking numerous criticisms…
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That she comes before the president is understandable. But the President of the National Assembly did not represent the traditional position of the Quai d’Orsay. Moreover, parliamentarians say that they do not have to be led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and that they have their own positions [Sylvain Maillard, chef du groupe Renaissance à l’Assemblée, a notamment assumé ne pas prendre « [ses] orders at the Quai d’Orsay »Editor’s note]
In any case, his movement was presented as being unbalanced. Perhaps Emmanuel Macron will be keen to restore a certain balance and appear to be the partner not only of the Israelis, but also of the Palestinians.
BIO EXPRESS
The geopolitologist Pascal Boniface is the author of nearly seventy works, including the latest, “War in Ukraine, the geopolitical shock wave”, was released in August by Eyrolles.
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