A bilateral event between Lorenzo Guerini and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, protagonists of the new Strategic Dialogues by Formiche, Adenauer Foundation and CSA. Here is what they said, between China, the future of NATO, European strategic autonomy and industrial collaborations (from Leonardo-Hensoldt to the tank of the future)
These are “decisive” times for the future of the West, and Italy and Germany can contribute as protagonists to the strengthening of European Defense (with the Strategic Compass) and to the adaptation of the Atlantic Alliance, with their eyes on June 14, when a Brussels will come Joe Biden for the NATO summit that will launch the new strategic concept. It is the common line of the ministers Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer e Lorenzo Guerini, protagonists of the web event “NATO between European defense and global challenges”, third appointment of the series “Strategic Dialogues”, a project by Formiche, Konrad Adenauer Foundation and Center for American Studies. Practically a bilateral live streaming, just over a month after the meeting in Berlin between the two, with many issues that remain on the common agenda. After the initial greetings from the director of Formiche and Airpress Flavia Giacobbe and the director Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Italia Nino Galetti, the debate was moderated by Marta dassù, board of the Center for American Studies.
THE THREATS
“Decisive” is the adjective chosen by Kramp-Karrenbuaer, “crucial” that of his colleague Guerini, both used to describe the present times, shaken by the pandemic and full of challenges and threats to the West. For the German minister, the first on the list is “the systemic challenge posed by China”, a country that “maintains an ambivalent role”, as a potential “economic partner” and adversary “to be faced on the issue of climate change and human rights”, as well as of “penetration into Africa”. This is followed by the “most concrete challenge in Europe, Russia”, which according to the German minister “is turning into an anti-democratic pole”, indeed a “counter-pole to the West”. Then follow the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, the instability of North Africa and the Middle East, the competition in the Indo-Pacific and the revolution in military affairs triggered by emerging technologies and new operational, cyber and space domains. On all this, between Italy and Germany “we share the vision on the spectrum of risks and threats to our security,” Akk said, recalling the bilateral meeting in Berlin in mid-March.
THE EUROPEAN DEFENSE
Hence the sharing of the need to strengthen European defense. Germany and Italy remain among the main sponsors of continental, political, strategic and industrial integration. In May 2019, together with their colleagues from France and Spain, the two ministers wrote a letter to the High Representative of the EU and the other member countries to ask for an acceleration on the issue, which was then merged into a budget of 7.9 billion euros. for the EDF fund (2021-2027), which however appears “under-financed compared to the initial initiatives”, said Guerini. Yet, it will be necessary to “make the most of the new tools” made available by Brussels, a perspective shared by the German colleague.
TOWARDS THE STRATEGIC COMPASS
Now the focus is on the Strategic Compass, the strategic compass expected for 2022 (in the semester of the French president of the EU) which will have to give homogeneity to the security and defense perspectives, so as to develop effective initiatives in the wake of the Global Strategy of the 2016. The topic was at the center of the recent meeting in Lisbon, under the Portuguese presidency of the Council of the EU, with other European colleagues and the Commissioner Thierry breton. In the drafting phase of the document, Guerini said, “it is important that differences in evaluation emerge, that the debate is true and that the confrontation is close”. The strategic compass, he added, “must become the fundamental starting point for the role of the European Union in the world”.
THE STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES
On this, Italy and Germany share not only the drive for a high level of ambition, but also the strategic reading that underlies it. The idea, reaffirmed by Guerini and Akk, is of a European Defense well inserted in the transatlantic link, not an alternative to NATO, but rather its strengthening. It is on this that, compared to the extensions of Paris, Rome and Berlin seemed aligned on the concept of “European strategic autonomy”, understood not as independence, but as a complementary strengthening of the transatlantic framework. “My belief – said Guerini – is that the development of European defense can represent a tool to allow the EU autonomy of intervention in areas of interest, but also to strengthen the transatlantic alliance”. It means “synergies and not duplications”, commented the owner of Palazzo Baracchini. On this, “Italy and Germany are working a lot”. And in fact Akk has relaunched the necessary convergence between the ongoing reflection processes: on the one hand the Strategic Compass, on the other the “Nato2030”.
THE NATO CONTEXT
The theme is clearly linked to the future of the Atlantic Alliance, in view of the summit which, on 14 June, will bring together the heads of state and government in Brussels. It will be the European debut of Joe Biden, whose administration has already brought back to NATO the traditional tones of Euro-Atlantic robustness after four years Donald Trump. This, the ministers explained, offers an opportunity to relaunch the Alliance, taking into account Washington’s requests to European allies on spending and assuming responsibility have not failed. All this is part of the strategic reflection “Born 2030” initiated by Jens Stoltenberg, and will be part of the new Strategic Concept on which the June summit will open the dance. Germany and Italy want to contribute as protagonists, respectively second contributor to the Alliance from the financial point of view and second from the point of view of participation in military missions. “It is not useless to reaffirm that the solidity of the transatlantic relationship remains central”, said Guerini, especially today, in the “confrontation with the new American administration”.
THE FOCUS ON COMMON VALUES
At the base are “common values, our convictions and ideas about the rule of law, democracy and freedom”, noted the German minister. Yet, “in a time of great changes on a global level, it is not certain that all this will be shared by the other players”. Therefore, Akk added, “if we do not want to turn our backs on our values, then we must be able to face the threats posed to them”. This “will also depend on the partnership and friendship between Germany and Italy”.
LEONARDO’S OPERATION …
On this front there are opportunities for relaunch, especially at the industrial level. Just a few days ago, Leonardo announced the signing of an agreement for the acquisition of 25.1% of Hensoldt, a leader in Germany in the field of sensors, with growing ambitions between robotics and cyber-security. It is “excellent news”, Akk said, in a field that “will be fundamental for the future”. “Excellent news” also for Guerini, since “it is an important step that can give life to a European champion in defense electronics”. It rests on a long history of bilateral collaboration, which is now destined to continue.
… AND THE TERRESTRIAL FIELD
“I am convinced that other projects will follow for the future”, said the German minister recalling the EuroMale project and the common experience on Eurofighter. “I believe – noted Guerini – that we could also look at other dimensions”, starting with “the more purely terrestrial one, both on the bilateral level and on the level of the great horizon of the European Main Battle Tank project”. It is the program for a tank of the future, on which France and Germany (with MGCS) have for now gone on alone. “I believe that progress must be made,” said Guerini. In this sense, Rheinmetall Italia’s proposal for a joint pole aimed at collaboration in the land armaments sector is known, starting with the replacement of the Dardo for the Army up to the Italian entry into the MGCS program. It is added to the German hypothesis for Fincantieri, with negotiations with Thyssenkrupp for submarines. Among the thorniest issues is the adhesion to two different projects for the sixth generation aircraft, the Tempest and the FCas. Looking ahead, Guerini concluded, the hope is for a future convergence.