Without saying a word, Jair Bolsonaro plays the agitation card. While the president defeated in Sunday’s election remained silent, without acknowledging his defeat and without even thanking his 58 million voters, a protest movement of anti-Lula truck drivers, launched on Monday morning, October 31, oil stain.
Dams have been installed throughout the country, and in particular on strategic axes, such as the highway between Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, the two largest cities in the country. Access to Sao Paulo International Airport was also disrupted on Tuesday morning, November 1. The movement of small putschist groups is supported by demonstrators determined to prevent Lula’s return to power.
“The Bolsonarists are waiting for a statement from their leader to know what attitude they will adopt”, explains political scientist Sergio Abranches. “This blockage contributes to creating a certain disorder, so as to allow Bolsonaro to possibly sign a decree and send the army to the streets. His silence could encourage putschist tendencies,” according to him.
This attitude has been described as“sham” by Marina Silva, former environment minister of Lula. “The whole world has already recognized Lula’s victory. There is not the slightest chance that we will have a drift. Bolsonaro is once again doing a disservice with his authoritarian instincts,” said Marina Silva on TV Cultura, adding that “His silence is a form of collusion with the movement of truckers”.
Recall the order
Faced with the hardening of the movement, the Supreme Court ordered the police forces to adopt “all necessary and sufficient measures” to remove roadblocks and restore freedom of movement in the country. Initially, the road police, led by a Bolsonarist, did not take any major action. Military police were tasked with restoring order in each state of the federation.
Particular sign: the governors of the states in the south-east of the country, who had called for Bolsonaro to vote, said they were ready to use force to restore order. “Bolsonaro is more isolated than ever, and the coup seems more difficult than ever,” considers Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, of the Arns Commission which defends human rights. The episode, however, constitutes a new escalation between the judiciary, which defends the electoral process, and the radical Bolsonarists who have targeted the institutions.
From Bolsonaro to Lula
It is in this extremely tense context that the transition officially begins. In two months, on January 1, 2023, Lula will be invested for a new four-year term. Until then, the two camps must exchange information so that the new administration can govern with full knowledge of the facts. The immediate concern is to scrutinize next year’s budget and to defuse possible “budgetary bombs” which could unbalance the accounts of the next government.
“We will have to examine the Official newspaper under the magnifying glass to see if they are not creating last-minute expenses that will complicate his life”, says an observer. The two camps have yet to announce the composition of their teams, but despite the tension on the ground, some members of the current government have confirmed that they are ready to play the game. An important sign of relaxation, when the most radical seem to favor the confrontation, only forty-eight hours after the closing of the polls.
Negotiations for the formation of the future government are also underway, with the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) of centrist Simone Tebet as a priority, which sided with Lula after coming third in the first round at the beginning of october. Lula will also try to bring into his fold several center-right parties which currently support the Bolsonaro government but which could have an interest in approaching the next administration.