2024-08-14 13:48:13
Assembly elections are to be held in four states this year- Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir. While Haryana has a BJP government, Maharashtra has a BJP alliance. BJP is trying to make a comeback in Jharkhand, while assembly elections are to be held in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time after the removal of Article 370. In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP had given the slogan of crossing 400 this time, but it could not even reach close to the majority figure on its own. The future direction of BJP will largely depend on how BJP performs in these first assembly elections to be held after the Lok Sabha elections. BJP has been in power in Haryana for two consecutive terms. When the party came to power here in 2014, Manohar Lal Khattar was made the CM. Then the 2019 assembly elections were fought under the leadership of Khattar and a government was formed in alliance with JJP. After that, just before the elections, Khattar was sent to the Center by making Naib Singh Saini the CM. BJP does not have any big face in the state. In such a scenario, it seems highly unlikely that she will move ahead by declaring someone as the CM candidate.
What will be the effect of Agnipath scheme
Haryana is important for BJP because not only a large number of farmers are here, a large number of youth from here also join the army. There are still discussions about the farmers’ displeasure over the new agricultural law (which was later withdrawn). Also, the opposition’s stance is aggressive regarding the new army recruitment scheme Agneepath. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been raising the issue since the time of the Lok Sabha elections that this scheme is against the youth. However, the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke in favor of this scheme on Kargil Vijay Diwas and cornered the opposition, it is clear that there is no change in this scheme for the time being. In such a situation, it remains to be seen what effect it will have in the assembly elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won all 10 seats in the state. But this time only 5 seats have come in BJP’s account. If we look at the vote share, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got 58% votes, whereas in this Lok Sabha election it got 46.06%. While the vote share of Congress was 28.42% in 2019, this time it has increased to 43.73%. Congress emerged strong here in the Lok Sabha elections and this is the biggest challenge for BJP in the assembly elections.
Who has the upper hand in Maharashtra?
There is a BJP coalition government in Maharashtra. The performance of this alliance in the Lok Sabha elections was not as expected. BJP won only 9 seats in the state in the Lok Sabha elections while it had fielded candidates on 28 seats. In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP won 106 seats in the state. There are a total of 288 assembly seats in the state. Maratha reservation is a big issue here which can become a problem for BJP. Even in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP did not get success in Marathwada region. Out of the 8 seats there, it contested on four seats but could not win even a single seat.
There are 46 assembly seats in the Marathwada region. In the 2019 elections, BJP won 16 seats in this region. It remains to be seen how BJP coordinates with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s party. There is a faction in BJP that wants BJP to contest the elections on its own in Maharashtra and decide on an alliance after looking at the situation after the elections. However, not everyone agrees with this, especially because a coalition government is running at the center. According to sources, the party is also conducting an internal survey on whether BJP should contest the elections alone.
The challenge of bringing the tribal population together
The biggest challenge before BJP in Jharkhand is to bring the tribal population together. It has tribal leaders but does not have a face to compete with Hemant Soren. There may be anti-incumbency against the state government but there is also sympathy in favor of Hemant Soren after going to jail. In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP could not win even one of the five seats reserved for tribes. There are 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand, out of which 28 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribe candidates. On the other hand, if we look at Jammu and Kashmir, this election will also be a question of credibility for BJP. This will be the first assembly election after the removal of Article 370 and its results will tell how people have actually taken this step of BJP.
After delimitation, the number of assembly seats in Jammu region increased from 37 to 43 and in Kashmir from 46 to 47. 24 seats are in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. It is believed that BJP is preparing to fight alone on all 43 seats or most of the seats in Jammu region, but BJP can support small parties or independents on many of the 47 seats in Kashmir. The way terrorist attacks have increased in Jammu region in the recent past has also given a blow to BJP’s narrative that peace has come to Jammu and Kashmir after the removal of Article 370.