Weak support base, ‘early general election’ is a long shot
Komeito, the ruling coalition, aims for more than 233 seats.
“Considering the slush fund scandal when voting” 65%
Liberal Democratic Party’s absolute landslide victory may be shaken
The general election to elect members of Japan’s House of Representatives (House of Representatives) began with candidate registration on the 15th and lasted 12 days.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party announced that it aims to win more than 233 seats, a majority of the total 465 seats, together with the ruling coalition Komeito Party. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is intensively investigating the issue of factional slush funds, which has been highlighted as the Liberal Democratic Party’s Achilles’ heel, and is emphasizing that the majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Republican coalition government must be destroyed.
In Japan, it is expected that this general election will be an opportunity to question confidence in the Shigeru Ishiba administration, which was inaugurated on the 1st. If the Liberal Democratic Party fails to secure a majority on its own, checks on the Ishiba administration, which already has a weak base and low approval ratings, will inevitably become stronger. There is also an analysis that the Ishiba regime may be short-lived in this process.
● 465 National Assembly members elected by ballot on the 27th
In this year’s general election in Japan, where votes will be counted on the 27th, 465 members of the National Assembly will be elected, including 289 single-member constituencies (districts) nationwide and proportional representation in 11 regions (176 seats). As of the 9th, before the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the Liberal Democratic Party (258 seats) and Komeito Party (32 seats) secured an ‘absolute stable majority’ with 290 seats, capable of securing the majority of all standing committee chairs and each standing committee.
In this election, in which 1,334 candidates ran across the country, the Liberal Democratic Party officially set the goal of securing a majority by merging with the ruling coalition Komeito Party. However, internally, whether the Liberal Democratic Party can secure a majority on its own is viewed as a criterion of victory or defeat. If it loses more than 26 seats compared to the general election three years ago, it will fail to achieve a single majority.
Prime Minister Ishiba, who has a weak support base due to being a non-mainstream member of the party, dissolved the House of Representatives on the 9th of this month in a bid to secure leadership in running the state through early general elections. In Japan, dissolving the National Assembly is within the prime minister’s full authority. For this reason, in the early stages of the Prime Minister’s inauguration, when public attention and approval ratings are increasing, he often dissolves the National Assembly, holds a general election, and wins the election to lay the foundation necessary for running state affairs. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also dissolved the House of Representatives less than a month after taking office in October 2021, and won a landslide victory in the general election, solidifying his foundation for power.
● Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory may be shaken
It is unclear whether the Liberal Democratic Party’s long-standing formula of winning the general election by dissolving the House of Representatives on the back of its increased popularity after taking office as prime minister will work this time. Japanese voters’ views on the Liberal Democratic Party have been negative since the ‘factional slush fund scandal’ that broke out in December last year. There are many predictions that it will be difficult for public criticism of the Liberal Democratic Party to be alleviated by the ‘new prime minister effect’.
In a telephone poll conducted by Kyodo News on the 12th and 13th among 1,264 people, 65.2% of respondents responded that they would ‘consider’ the slush fund case when voting. In order to appease public sentiment, Prime Minister Ishiba excluded 12 lawmakers involved in the slush fund scandal from nominations and, as much as possible, excluded candidates running in single constituencies under a vote-loss ratio system from running for proportional representation.
However, there was a backlash within the party that it excluded the ‘Abe faction’ that opposed Prime Minister Ishiba. There are also criticisms from voters that the disposition is too weak. Since taking office as prime minister, criticism has also been raised that his fresh image has faded as he has lowered his voice on the so-called “Ishibashi policy” that he emphasized during his fringe days, such as the Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the revision of the U.S.-Japan troop status agreement.
In fact, Prime Minister Ishiba’s approval rating has been declining since his inauguration. In a Kyodo News poll, the Ishiba cabinet’s approval rating was 42.0%, down 8.7 percentage points in just 10 days compared to the beginning of this month. Regarding the election situation, Prime Minister Ishiba said, “I recognize that it is very severe,” and said, “I will do my best to secure a majority for the coalition government.” There is an assessment that he was expressing his intention that it would be difficult to guarantee an absolute landslide victory for the Liberal Democratic Party.
In his first speech in Fukushima Prefecture on the 15th, Prime Minister Ishiba appealed for support, saying, “I will go into the election with deep reflection so that the slush fund issue does not arise again.” On the same day, Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, said in a speech on the streets of Tokyo, “This dissolution is the dissolution of hiding slush funds. He went on the offensive, saying, “I will visit the constituencies of lawmakers involved in slush funds to convey the public’s anger.”
Tokyo = Correspondent Lee Sang-hoon [email protected]
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