LDP President Won’t Run for Office With Approval Rating Around 20%
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (pictured) has announced that he will not run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s next presidential election scheduled for the end of next month. Accordingly, Prime Minister Kishida will step down from his post on September 30, the day his term as LDP president expires.
Prime Minister Kishida held a press conference at the Prime Minister’s Official Residence in Tokyo on the morning of the 14th and said, “The easiest first step to show change in the Liberal Democratic Party is for me to step down,” and “I will not run in the upcoming presidential election.”
Prime Minister Kishida mentioned the scandal surrounding the slush funds of a LDP faction that surfaced at the end of last year and the LDP’s collusion with the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (formerly known as the Unification Church), and said, “As the head of an organization, I have no hesitation in taking responsibility for the serious situation caused by one of my members.”
Japan, which has a cabinet system, has the leader of the majority party as prime minister. The Liberal Democratic Party, which has the majority, will hold an internal election next month in which members of the Diet and regional party members will participate to elect the party president who will become the next prime minister. Prime Minister Kishida will continue to work as a member of the Diet and vote in the presidential election.
Prime Minister Kishida took office in October 2021 as the successor to former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Due to a series of negative factors, including a slush fund scandal, the approval rating for the cabinet has remained in the 10-20% range, which is considered a “resignation crisis” level, since the beginning of the year. With Prime Minister Kishida declaring that he will not run, a fierce competition is expected to unfold within the Liberal Democratic Party to become the next prime minister.
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“Prime Minister Kishida cannot run in the next election.”
“It would be better for the Liberal Democratic Party if the Kishida government collapses quickly.”
These are the words that have been openly exchanged recently both inside and outside Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party surrounding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Prime Minister Kishida’s approval rating has been steadily declining since 2022, the year after he took office, due to collusion between the LDP and the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (formerly the Unification Church) and personnel controversies. The scandal of the LDP faction’s slush funds that broke out at the end of last year was the final blow. The justification and power to block the ‘Prime Minister replacement theory’ disappeared, and the resignation that everyone had expected became a reality.
Now, attention in Japanese politics is focused on who will become the next prime minister. Several big names in the LDP, including former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, are being mentioned, but there is no clear “strong candidate”, so a fierce election battle is expected. Some strong candidates have already held public meetings and appealed to lawmakers for support, and the election campaign is already underway. The schedule for the LDP presidential election, which will be held at the end of September, will be decided within this month.
● ‘White flag’ on factional slush fund scandal
Prime Minister Kishida took office after former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga resigned due to his inadequate response to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Immediately after his inauguration, the House of Representatives (lower house) was dissolved and the Liberal Democratic Party won 261 seats in the general election held, far exceeding the single majority (233 seats), solidifying its solid foundation for power. In the House of Councilors (upper house) election held after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022, he also won a landslide victory. It was evaluated that a “golden three years” had begun.
But this was the peak. After former Prime Minister Abe’s death, the long-standing relationship between the LDP and the Family Union, especially the collusion between key cabinet members and party executives, was revealed. Prime Minister Kishida, mindful of the conservative hardliners within the party, pushed ahead with a state funeral for former Prime Minister Abe, out of touch with public opinion. His approval rating fell below 30%.
The approval rating briefly recovered due to the improvement of Japan-Korea relations and the hosting of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, his constituency, but it did not last long. There was a series of negative factors, such as Prime Minister Kishida’s eldest son Shotaro holding a year-end party at the Prime Minister’s official residence and the poor management of personal information on the “My Number Card,” which is called the Japanese version of the resident registration card.
In this situation, the scandal of slush funds within the party became a decisive factor in the resignation. The influential members involved received only a slap on the wrist, a warning. Prime Minister Kishida himself, the party president, was completely excluded from the disciplinary action.
As public criticism continued, the LDP suffered a complete defeat in three House of Representatives by-elections in April. Prime Minister Kishida was left isolated and helpless after losing key local elections. The idea of a “replacement of the prime minister” emerged within the party.
In a survey by the Asahi Shimbun last month, 74% of respondents said, “We do not want Prime Minister Kishida to be reappointed.” In the end, Prime Minister Kishida had no choice but to choose not to run for office, just one month before the party presidential election, without creating an opportunity to raise his approval rating. He left behind a record of 1,046 days in office on the 14th, making him the eighth longest-serving prime minister since Japan’s defeat in World War II.
● Emphasize achievements of “improving Korea-Japan relations”
At the press conference that day, Prime Minister Kishida emphasized that “Korea-Japan relations have improved.” As a future task, he ordered, “Next year will be the 60th anniversary of the normalization of Korea-Japan diplomatic relations, so we must further ensure the normalization of Korea-Japan relations.” Even as he was leaving, he mentioned the importance of Korea-Japan relations and listed it as one of his achievements.
Diplomats predict that no matter who becomes the new prime minister, there will be no significant change in the current Korea-Japan relationship. A government official said, “Even if Prime Minister Kishida steps down, the LDP will continue to govern. There will be no change in the trend of improving relations.” Regardless of the sentiments of both countries, there is a perception in Japanese politics that Korea-US-Japan and Korea-Japan cooperation is essential to the country’s security and economy.
However, it seems difficult to expect a forward-looking attitude from Japan regarding historical awareness. The Liberal Democratic Party has consistently shown a right-wing stance on historical issues since the 2000s. In particular, after former Prime Minister Abe announced the “Abe Statement” in 2015, stating that “future generations will not be destined to apologize for the past,” this movement has become fixed as a policy.
Other candidates for the successor to the prime minister include former Secretary-General Ishiba, who recently ranked first in major opinion polls; Digital Minister Kono; and Secretary-General Motegi, as well as former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi; Economic and Security Minister Sanae Takaichi; and Takayuki Kobayashi, a member of the Diet.
The LDP presidential election is a party election. Regardless of national popularity, the outcome is often determined by the dynamics within the party. Recently, the party is paying attention to the movements of former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who is considered the “kingmaker.”
Tokyo = Correspondent Lee Sang-hoon [email protected]
2024-08-15 03:16:39