2024-07-29 12:57:25
Japan and Europe, though far apart, share the same concerns. Russia is not currently an immediate threat, but it could become one, especially if the Kremlin’s cooperation with China, which remains the most feared player in the region, increases. “It is possible that Chinese President Xi Jinping will become the next Putin,” warns Japanese security studies professor Masayuki Masuda in an interview for Aktuálně.cz.
Japan is facing its most serious security threat since the end of World War II. The report issued by the Japanese government in July warns not only against Russia, but above all against its ally – China. “We cannot rule out that a similar situation, such as Russian aggression against Ukraine, may occur in the future in the Indo-Pacific, especially in East Asia,” The Diplomat magazine quotes from the document.
In an interview with Aktuálně.cz, Masayuki Masuda, who is the director of the Chinese section at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo under the Japanese Ministry of Defense, also draws attention to this. “We share the same threat with Europe. Russia is a big country, it touches Europe and is close to Japan,” he explains to Aktutálně.cz. “Although Moscow does not represent an immediate threat, it could become one if relations between the Kremlin and Beijing continue to grow,” he believes.
Masayuki Masuda of the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo. | Photo: Jana Václavíková
He identifies China as an immediate threat to Japan. “We describe it as the greatest strategic challenge to our defense and the international system and order,” he says.
As examples of Beijing’s territorial ambitions in the region, he cites, for example, the growing number of nuclear warheads, more Chinese ships in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, or a new law that gives Chinese crews more powers. For example, they can enter or search a foreign deck.
A more active role in defense
Because of these moves by China and world events, the Japanese government is reevaluating its stance on gun ownership after decades. Although their acquisition for the purpose of conducting offensive actions is prohibited by the constitution, the administration is newly aware that it is important to have weapons also for deterrence.
“We are moving in a new direction in which we play a more active defensive and deterrent role,” explains Masuda. To this end, Tokyo increased its defense budget to two percent of gross domestic product and bought fighter planes of Italian-British production.
“This is not only for the defense of Japan, but also for our partners, including South Korea, the Philippines and Australia. Each of these countries is under pressure from China. The goal is to send a clear signal that we will never allow it to change the status quo by force,” he describes.
“China’s Putin”
A change in the established order in the region could occur if Beijing were to invade Taiwan – an island to which it claims territorial rights, although the local democratically elected government has been operating autonomously for 70 years. Masuda believes that the mere invasion of Taiwan, which is only 80 kilometers from Japan, would not threaten his country. But it would depend on the circumstances under which it would occur.
“If public opinion in China becomes more and more tough and demands action against Taiwan, and the President Xi Jinping or the Communist Party there face problems, then it is possible that Xi Jinping will become the next Putin,” he thinks. He adds that the Chinese Communists already have to solve problems with the domestic economy.
“We should not be calm and rule out a possible escalation into a military operation,” he warns.
Japan is also dependent on the United States for defense. The relationship is also beneficial for Washington, which obtains weapons from Asian states with greater production capacity, says Masuda, adding that Asia has a lot to offer the US.
“If we create an institutionalized partnership, it will be difficult for any leader to destroy such a system,” he says when asked if the election of Donald Trump as president could disrupt the relationship. US elections are held in November. “If he wins, we will have to deal with some problems, but the situation will be far more serious in Europe,” he concludes.
Video: Relations between Russia and China are equal, Putin claimed. Xi Jinping was just smiling (7/4/2024)
“The relations between Russia and China are equal,” Putin claimed. At the same time, Xi Jinping just smiled. | Video: Reuters