“We must secure deterrence against North Korea and China”… Re-emphasis on collective security, which has been advocated for 20 years
South Korea declares “South Korea-U.S. nuclear umbrella first”… Positive reactions from the U.S. Congress one after another
“Ishiba plans to hold general elections on the 27th of next month”
After being elected, Japan’s next prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, argued day after day that “an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) must be created.” It is a proposal to introduce a collective security system in the region to counter countries that threaten the Asian situation, such as North Korea, China, and Russia.
Governor Ishiba, who has been proposing the creation of an ‘Asian version of NATO’ for nearly 20 years, has emphasized this agenda several times even before he was officially inaugurated as the new Prime Minister of Japan, and the discussion on this issue appears to be growing both inside and outside of Japan. Japanese media reported on the 29th that Governor Ishiba, who will be inaugurated as Prime Minister on the 1st of next month, has confirmed his decision to dissolve the House of Representatives (House of Representatives) and hold general elections on October 27th.
● Ishiba, who has advocated collective security for 20 years
On the 27th (local time), Governor Ishiba wrote in a column titled ‘The Future of Japanese Foreign Policy’ for the Hudson Institute, a U.S. conservative think tank, that “Asia is in a state where a collective self-defense system like NATO does not exist, making it easy for war to break out.” “For Western allies to deter China, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential,” he argued. He also said, “We must secure deterrence against the nuclear alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia,” and “We must also specifically review sharing or importing nuclear weapons from the United States.” He also did not hide his plan to organically connect the US-Japan alliance and the ROK-US alliance.
The US-Japan Security Treaty signed in 1951 had the main purpose of preventing the expansion of communism in East Asia after the outbreak of the Korean War. President Ishiba’s theory is that the one-on-one alliance with the United States that has been in existence for over 70 years cannot prevent the threat of North Korea, China, and Russia, which have become a de facto ‘nuclear alliance’ today.
Since the 2000s, Governor Ishiba has argued that Japan should exercise its right to collective self-defense (the right to treat an attack by another country as an attack on its own and use force) to create an Asian version of NATO. Accordingly, as this claim is not an election pledge but a policy that has been carefully considered and refined over 20 years, it is highly likely that it will be directly mentioned at future U.S.-Japan summits.
Governor Ishiba served in defense political office three times, including as Minister of Defense. When it comes to past history issues and political discussions within the party, he is considered a non-mainstream dove, but when it comes to defense and security, he is close to a hawk, even mentioning the import of nuclear weapons, which Japan regards as a taboo. There is also an analysis that the forward-looking stance towards Korea on past history issues is due to the ‘strategic necessity’ of obtaining Korea’s cooperation for Korea-US-Japan cooperation and the creation of an Asian version of NATO.
President Ishiba will take advantage of the heightened public expectations immediately after taking office and hold an early general election after dissolving the National Assembly. According to Japanese media reports, the most likely plan is to disband immediately after the ruling and opposition party leaders’ debate on the 9th and hold a general election on the 27th. In Japan, dissolving the National Assembly is within the prime minister’s full authority. The prime minister uses it as a strategic card to strengthen his base.
● Government “Prioritizes U.S. extended deterrence focused on North Korean nuclear weapons”
The U.S. administration has drawn the line on the Asian version of NATO, citing that it could irritate China and other countries and that Korea and Japan have different interests. However, there has recently been a positive response, especially from the U.S. Congress. Republican member of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael Lawler submitted a bill to form a task force (TF) to review the issue of establishing the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO). Michael Green, chair of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and director of the Center for American Studies at the University of Sydney, also told Foreign Policy (FP) in September last year, “With geopolitical developments in Asia, this choice has become more plausible than 70 years ago.”
The Korean government is in the mood to draw a line. A government source emphasized, “Under the current situation, the U.S. extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) system focused on the North Korean nuclear issue is preferred.” The priority is to continue to firmly root the nuclear umbrella system between Korea and the United States, which has entered the institutionalization phase, and is not at the stage to consider the creation of an Asian version of NATO. This can be interpreted as premature considering the domino repercussions that would result from nuclear sharing or the importation of nuclear weapons, which jointly operate US nuclear weapons as an extension of an Asian version of NATO. There are also concerns that Governor Ishiba’s nuclear sharing or importation of nuclear weapons is a move to pursue ordinary nationalization that breaks Japan’s existing ‘three non-nuclear principles’ (prohibition on manufacturing, possessing, and importing nuclear weapons).
Tokyo = Correspondent Lee Sang-hoon [email protected]
Reporter Shin Gyu-jin [email protected]
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2024-09-29 22:58:30