opinions expresses the views of the writer.
JD Vance is probably one of the most intellectually gifted members of the United States Senate. Not only is he 40 years younger than most of the others there. He has had an impressive career at the age of 39 and he has not started anything. Now he is the Republican vice presidential candidate.
But there is something jarring.
Jørn Sund-Henriksen
Jørn Sund-Henriksen was an election observer in Kyiv during the Orange Revolution in 2004 and served in the Coast Guard Command. He has been involved in independent intelligence (OSINT) for over 10 years in various conflicts and is the leader of the Norwegian-Ukrainian Association of Friends. His work is based on open source research, and is therefore a collection and analysis of currently available information, with the associated dangers of mis-sourcing.
Completely turned around
His 2016 autobiographical book Hillbilly Elegy, made into a 2020 film, tells of growing up in poverty, neglect and violence. He is a sunflower child who succeeded despite demanding conditions growing up.
Vance served in the Marine Corps and participated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from Ohio University and then attended Yale Law School where he was editor of the Yale Law Review.
Vance became very successful in the tech industry in San Francisco, but moved back to Ohio after the success of Hillbilly Elegy and began his political career. He has always been in the Republican Party, but in 2016 he was an outspoken “Never Trump” Republican. He then sent the messages below to a fellow student, in which he makes it clear what he thinks about Trump. He wasn’t sure, wondering if Trump could be “America’s Hitler.”
It’s obviously a pointed formulation, but he has a good analysis of why the Republicans might be vulnerable to a demagogue like Trump. And he was absolutely right. But JD Vance has completely turned around.
Vance has not only left the “Never Trump” section of the party, but has become one of the strongest and most loyal supporters of Donald Trump in American politics. Having been elected to the Senate in 2022, he is one of the most obvious Maga Senators.
Also read: Crazy theories about Trump can have big consequences for us
What happened?
I don’t believe Vance changed his mind. I don’t believe he really thought it through and realized that Trump is right after all. I simply think he has made a cynical assessment and realized that if he was to have a chance at a political career in today’s political climate, he would have to get on the MAGA train.
When he was going to do it anyway, he went “all in”. His politics are deeply rooted in “America First” isolationism. Among other things, he has said that he was no matter what happens to Ukraine and is strongly against military support for Ukraine.
What is serious for Norway is that Vance is also suspected by NATO. He was probably the worst vice presidential candidate on Trump’s list regarding the future of NATO. He and Trump may become more moderate on NATO if elected, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The reality is that Trump does not have a single vote to win by engaging with NATO. NATO does not fit into America first. And I don’t believe he had a long-term strategy to pressure NATO countries to invest more in their respective defenses. He does not want international commitments such as NATO.
We cannot bet our sovereignty on being “Trump-safe” because we have increased defense investment to two percent of GDP. Europe must be more “self-sufficient” in terms of security policy. The political developments in the US show that we cannot trust that NATO will remain or that NATO will be blocked.
Everything depends on Trump’s victory in November. As his vice presidential candidate, Trump shows that he is not interested in “aligning” himself with establishment Republicans. Quite the opposite. They want to take the United States in a very isolated direction. This election is still a cause for concern for us.