More than six months after the start of a military campaign that has cost between $71 billion and $118 billion and claimed 18 service member lives, Vice President JD Vance argued that the conflict with Iran is not a war,
while signaling that China is prepared to cooperate with Washington on economic isolation efforts.
More than six months after President Donald Trump announced the start of a military campaign against Iran, Vice President JD Vance maintained during a White House briefing that the ongoing hostilities do not constitute a war. The conflict has carried a heavy toll, resulting in the deaths of 18 service members, at least 750 injuries, and an estimated financial cost ranging between $71 billion and $118 billion according to reporting on the administration’s statements.
Despite those figures, Vance downplayed the current state of engagement. I wouldn’t call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting,
Vance told reporters when pressed on a timeline for ending the hostilities, acknowledging only that there have been places where this has flared up.
“When you ask, ‘When will this end?’, you’re asking me a question like: When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?”
When asked directly when the situation would conclude, Vance declined to offer a deadline. I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You’d have to ask the Iranians,
he added.
Operation Economic Outcast and Beijing’s Diplomatic Stance
The White House briefing also touched on Washington’s broader financial strategy against Tehran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the launch of Operation Economic Outcast, an unprecedented campaign designed to sever the Iranian government’s financial lifelines, restrict oil shipping networks, and expand sanctions into digital assets and technology.
A central question surrounding the Treasury’s campaign has been whether it can succeed without the participation of Beijing. Vance struck an optimistic tone regarding China’s posture, stating that the People’s Republic of China is willing to play ball here
on economic isolation efforts.
While acknowledging that Washington and Beijing retain policy disagreements and misaligned interests, Vance emphasized that President Donald Trump maintains a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He clarified, however, that cooperation does not mean Beijing is complying with every request made by the United States.
Regional Security, Maritime Traffic, and Civilian Casualties
Beyond major powers, the administration pointed to quieter diplomatic alignment across the Middle East. Vance noted that nations including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states are taking private steps to help ensure Iran faces penalties for attacking commercial vessels.
Maritime transit figures through key Middle Eastern chokepoints show fluctuating activity. Data from Kpler indicated that the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa recorded 31 transiting commodity vessels on Wednesday, surpassing its 10-day average of 25. By contrast, only six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on the same day, falling below the 10-day average of roughly 13 ships.
Simultaneously, diplomatic and legal pressures are mounting over the human cost of the conflict. Iranian authorities reported that a US strike in Kuhestak along the Strait of Hormuz killed five people, including two children, during a wedding party. The Iranian Red Crescent formally called for the International Criminal Court to investigate the incident as a war crime.
The military actions also drew sharp criticism from domestic lawmakers. US Congresswoman Delia Ramirez condemned the civilian casualties in a public statement on social media, explicitly targeting the administration’s conduct.
“Congress can’t continue to turn a blind eye on Trump and Hegseth’s war crimes. The time to hold warmongers accountable is now. Congress must pass Block the Bombs Act, reclaim our power, and put an end to this endless war.”
Strait of Hormuz Navigation and International Consultations
In East Asia, South Korea is weighing potential military measures to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing back against earlier assertions from Donald Trump that Seoul had declined to assist Washington in the conflict. Those claims had previously led the US to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea.
South Korean media outlets reported that Seoul was preparing to deploy military assets by the end of the year, potentially seeking parliamentary approval as early as this month. A presidential Blue House official noted that formal security talks between South Korea and the US were not currently progressing, though South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is expected to discuss navigation support options with French President Emmanuel Macron.
