“Like sleepwalkers we walk towards a confrontation” alert in a column published Friday, July 29 in the New York Times two specialists in China-US relations (1). In the aftermath of the long two-hour telephone conversation between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, this warning takes on a particular resonance. The leaders of the two greatest world powers have certainly decided to meet in person on an as yet undetermined date, but nothing concrete has come out of this discussion.
Avoid conflicts
“Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have certainly spoken to each other” recognizes Robert Dujarric, co-director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo, “but did they understand each other? », wonders this specialist. Both sides called the phone call, the fifth virtual summit between the two officials since Joe Biden became president a year and a half ago, as « franc »a diplomatic term which means that the disagreements between the two countries remain numerous.
China – United States: Xi Jinping and Joe Biden remain rivals more than ever
“This dialogue will not necessarily calm relations between the two countries, further analyzes Robert Dujarric, but it may help to avoid conflicts. » In any case, no progress has been made on the issue of the 25% tariffs imposed on billions of dollars of Chinese products by ex-President Donald Trump, which Joe Biden could have decided to raise to fight against inflation in the United States. “Not to please China” says Robert Dujarric.
A major provocation
The New China agency reported that the Chinese president had issued a warning to Joe Biden about Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory to be taken back, by force if necessary. “Those who play with fire end up getting burned”he warned, repeating comments made to his American counterpart during their last meeting in November, when Beijing has been threatening for several days to ” consequences “ if the leader of the American congresses Nancy Pelosi carries out her project of visit to Taiwan planned at the beginning of August.
For his part, the American president underlined that the position of the United States on Taiwan had not “not changed”, the White House said. Washington has recognized the Chinese regime since 1979, according to the principle of « Chine unique » whose capital is in Beijing. They do not officially recognize Taiwan, while supporting the island militarily. Opposed to any initiative that would give the Taiwanese authorities international legitimacy, China is against any official contact between Taiwan and other states, and therefore against the potential visit of Nancy Pelosi.
Although US officials visit Taiwan frequently, Beijing considers a trip by Ms Pelosi, one of the highest figures in the US state, to be a major provocation. « Not going there would only reinforce the Chinese in their belief that the pressures workassures Valérie Niquet, (2) China specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). It would be more dangerous. She has to go. What can the Chinese do anyway? »
“Find a way out”
However, the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House express in chorus their opposition to this trip ” dangerous “. In their eyes, “the tensions in the world are already sufficient, no need to add a new one in Asia”. For Robert Dujarric, “The issue is complicated but the China is not going to war on Washington and now that Nancy Pelosi has announced her move, it is hard to give it up without giving the impression of capitulation to Beijing”. In the New York Timesthe two specialists conclude by calling “the two leaders to wake up (of their somnambulism) and to find a way out in order to avoid a dangerous confrontation that neither of them wants”.