2023-06-22 08:59:29
The cross : What are the stakes of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States?
Christophe Jaffrelot : This rapprochement is explained by the current international context. The United States still hopes to make India a partner, even an ally, vis-à-vis China, and even Russia. They have understood that it will be complicated, and do not show excessive ambition: a simple shift in Indian discourse on Russia, and the conviction that India could act as a counterweight to China, would satisfy them. There are also a lot of contracts at stake.
For Delhi, this is not a strategy, it is at best a tactic. China, because of its expansionism, pushes India into its ropes. In 2020, around 20 Indian soldiers died in border clashes with China. India is also worried about the growing presence of China in Sri Lanka, which it cannot dissuade.
As for Russia, India understands that it will never again, or for a long time, be what it was for it: a reliable arms supplier. But where to find weapons? In the United States, and in France! It is no coincidence that Narendra Modi is received in France in July (the Indian Prime Minister will be the guest of honor at the July 14 military parade, editor’s note). There is nothing strategic for the Indians in this rapprochement, only tactics.
Several major breakthroughs would be expected in the fields of defence, clean energy and strategic technologies, why is this important for India?
CJ: India seeks technology transfers, mainly in the military field. It is a country that does not have a defense industry suited to its size and its ambitions. He cannot build tanks, fighter planes or submarines. That’s why they import $20 billion worth of weapons a year. Obtaining technology transfers to finally build this strategic autonomy is therefore absolutely essential for them.
Will this visit to the United States, then that to France, be an opportunity to address the issue of the oil that India buys from Russia in order to refine it and resell it?
CJ: I think that we will turn a blind eye to the oil refined by the Indians, in particular because we Europeans are, in short, the first beneficiaries! It’s a way of preventing prices from rising too much, and the Indians benefit from it: it’s win-win, even if it’s in flagrant contradiction with the stated policy. It is one more nail in the coffin of political morality.
The West still loses credit for doing all this, and the Global South laughs out loud when it comes to morality. This is obvious for arms and oil. And when it comes to the regression of human rights in India, the United States is under no illusions. It’s a side topic.
What are the limits of this rapprochement between India and the United States?
CJ: Joe Biden is betting on India, but several scholars say it’s a bad bet. This is what the researcher Ashley J. Tellis said for example a month ago in a very nice article published by the journal Foreign Affairs. According to him, the Indians will do nothing against China, because they are too afraid of it.
India can only be “pro-American” on a limited number of issues. She remembers the sanctions imposed by the US Congress after her nuclear tests in 1998, and therefore does not want to put all her eggs in one basket. Because of its protectionism, it will never support the American vision of free trade at the World Trade Organization (WTO). She will never support resolutions at the UN Commission on Human Rights in Geneva. And India abstains at the UN whenever the United States proposes something there!
More generally, for there to be a common strategy, there needs to be a common vision of the world. However, India remains totally committed to the idea of a multipolar world. She does not want a bipolar or unipolar world. This is why we can say that this rapprochement is pragmatic and tactical. India, since its independence, does not want to be aligned. She has no allies, and doesn’t want to depend on anyone.
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