Three weeks before the mid-term elections, Joe Biden tried, on Tuesday, October 18, to remobilize Americans around the right to abortion, by promising to enshrine it in federal law from January 2023 in the event of a Democratic victory in the Congress.
Despite growing dissatisfaction with inflation and the risk of recession undermining his party’s chances of such success, the president is banking on the outrage sparked by the Supreme Court’s abortion flip-flop to stock up on votes left and center.
On June 24, the high court of the United States reversed its judgment « Roe v. Wade » which has guaranteed for half a century the right of American women to terminate their pregnancy, and has given freedom to each State in terms of abortion.
“Carve in Marble Roe c. Wade »
“Remember what you felt that day (…) anger, worry, disbelief”launched Joe Biden during a speech before the Democratic Party in Washington, denouncing ” chaos “ followed this decision. “In four months, laws prohibiting abortion have gone into effect in 16 states”he continued, and “the elected Republicans of Congress have gone further” promise to adopt such a ban at the federal level if they take control of Congress after the November 8 elections.
“But let’s be clear: if such a law were to be adopted in the years to come, I would veto it”, thundered the tenant of the White House. The best way “to stop these extremist laws” according to him would be to pass a law at the federal level “to engrave in marble Roe c. Wade once and for all”. “For the moment, we are missing a few voices”he acknowledged, calling on voters to send more elected Democrats to the Senate and the House of Representatives.
“If you do, I promise you the first piece of legislation I send to Congress will be to codify Roe,” he continued. “And as soon as Congress passes it, I will sign it, in January, for 50 years” of this stop.
Procedural mechanism
A bill to this effect has already been passed by the Democratic majority of the House of Representatives. The text is slipping in the Senate, where a qualified majority of 60% would be needed to adopt it due to a procedural mechanism called « filibuster ». Joe Biden has long been loath to change this rule meant to encourage compromise between the two major parties. At the end of June, he said he was ready to make a « exception » and to lift it to guarantee the right of American women to have an abortion.
But two of the 50 Democratic senators do not want to touch the « filibuster ». Since the upper house has 100 elected members, the Democrats would have to win two new seats to change the situation, while maintaining their majority in the lower house. The goal seems very ambitious, especially since midterm elections are usually an opportunity to punish the president’s party.
Galvanized Democrats
The Democrats were galvanized by a referendum organized in early August in the very conservative state of Kansas, where voters mobilized massively to reject a constitutional amendment hostile to abortion. However, polls show that abortion is no longer the priority of Americans.
About 26% cite the economy as their main concern and 18% inflation, far ahead of abortion at 5%, according to a survey published this week by the Siena Institute with the New York Times. Even more worrisome for Democrats, independent female voters also appear to have revised their preferences. In September, Democrats were 14 points ahead of Republicans in this segment of the electorate, they are now 18 points behind.