2024-08-13 03:41:44
The American bank JPMorgan Chase has increased the probability of a recession in the US economy by the end of the year from 25% to 35%. This was reported by the Bloomberg agency, citing a letter from the financial institution’s economists sent to clients, Day.Az reports, citing TASS.
According to the document, US news “points to a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of job losses.” Analysts still estimate the probability of a recession in the US economy by the second half of 2025 at 45%. The letter emphasizes that the increase in the recession risk assessment is quite moderate, while the interest rate forecast has been adjusted more significantly. JPMorgan now allows only a 30% probability that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for an extended period, two months ago this forecast was 50%.
As Bloomberg notes, earlier analysts from the American investment bank Goldman Sachs increased the probability of a recession in the US economy next year from 15% to 25%.
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