NEW YORK, July 23, 2025
Soto’s underlying numbers suggest a turnaround is imminent
Juan Soto is proving to be Major League Baseball’s unluckiest hitter, according to advanced metrics, but this actually sparks optimism for a significant upswing.
- Juan Soto has the largest gap between his actual and expected slugging percentage in MLB.
- Statcast data suggests Soto is due for positive regression and better results.
- Despite a .500 slugging percentage, his expected slugging is .641.
- Only Aaron Judge has an actual slugging percentage closer to Soto’s expected performance.
Juan Soto, the newest star for the New York Mets, is finding his rhythm at the plate, but the early returns present a puzzling picture. Despite a respectable .500 slugging percentage, Soto is currently described as the unluckiest bat in Major League Baseball. This assessment stems from Statcast’s advanced metrics, which analyze batted balls by speed and trajectory to predict expected outcomes.
The numbers paint an optimistic forecast
Statcast’s findings reveal a substantial disparity between Soto’s real-world performance and his expected slugging percentage, which stands at a projected .641. This considerable gap suggests that factors beyond his control, like exceptional defensive plays or ballpark dimensions, have suppressed his actual results.
What is the biggest reason for optimism regarding Juan Soto’s performance? The data indicates that Soto is primed for positive regression, meaning his performance is likely to align more closely with his impressive batted-ball data soon. This suggests that opposing pitchers may face increased trouble as Soto’s luck is expected to turn around.
The gap between Soto’s expected and actual slugging percentage is the largest in the entire league. This means that while he has shown flashes of brilliance, external forces have kept his numbers from fully reflecting his potential. Notably, only Aaron Judge has an actual slugging percentage that comes close to Soto’s expected performance.
Looking ahead for the Mets slugger
As Soto continues to adjust to his new environment in New York, there’s a strong belief that his talent and hard work will soon translate into results that better mirror his capabilities. The statistical evidence provided by Statcast offers a solid foundation for optimism among Mets fans, hinting at brighter days ahead for one of baseball’s most exciting players. The league will undoubtedly be watching closely as Soto’s potential starts to shine through.
