2024-07-08 08:14:24
Last year, NATO’s failure to provide Ukraine with clear terms of membership caused dissatisfaction. During 2023 V. Zelenskii called the NATO summit in Lithuania “absurd” and the Alliance’s refusal to do so. However, in the end, he did not convince the leaders and they only stated that the invitation would come “when the allies agree and the conditions are fulfilled”.
Western officials in Washington say they hope to avoid a new conflict, so V. Zelenskiy has already been told clearly that there will be no concrete progress. According to several diplomats, during the meeting with the Ukrainian leader, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg outlined in advance what would be offered. One NATO diplomat, who requested anonymity, said that now everything is better prepared and “V. Zelensky will have to agree to what is proposed.”
A smooth summit is especially important for US President Joe Biden, who is seeking to repair the damage to his re-election campaign caused by his poor performance in the debates.
“close to zero”
As Russia continues its third year of full-scale war, Ukraine remains firmly convinced that its only long-term security guarantee is membership of the US-led alliance. However, it is understood in Kiev that the Washington summit will not bring the country closer to membership. “The chances of getting an invitation are close to zero,” a senior Ukrainian official said, adding that Kiev hopes to take advantage of allies’ “guilt” over lack of progress in other areas.
The heavyweight countries most reluctant to bring Ukraine closer to membership are the United States and Germany, which do not want to involve NATO in a war with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Diplomats say Kiev has made some progress on key reforms, such as military procurement, but much remains to be done to root out corruption.
To encourage Ukraine, NATO diplomats say they are debating calling Kiev’s membership “irreversible” in the summit declaration. Most likely, the Alliance will also talk about the fact that Kiev is now on the “bridge” towards accession. “V. “Putin said that Ukraine must not join NATO, so Washington should give a very strict response, making it clear that this is an irreversible process,” said the European diplomat.
NATO says it will not only change the wording, but also strengthen Western support for Kiev. The alliance will take over coordination of the arms supply from the United States. That should help guarantee supplies should former US President Donald Trump return to the Oval Office, diplomats said.
NATO allies have also pledged to continue providing support to Kiev at roughly the same level as it has been since the start of the Russian invasion, at $40 billion. euros per year. However, the pledge is not legally binding, especially since Washington requires an annual review.
More systems for Patriot?
The most important and concrete help Mr. Zelensky will receive in Washington appears to be commitments to provide Ukraine with new air defense systems to better defend its skies. Kiev said back in April that it desperately needed seven more Patriot missile systems to counter Russia’s devastating attacks.
Since then, only three advanced air defense systems have been proposed, by Germany, Romania and Italy. The United States is now reportedly considering announcing that it will provide another Patriot system to Kiev. A Dutch-led initiative to assemble another system could also be fruitful.
“I think we’re going to have some additional good news for them on that front,” a senior U.S. official said. Ahead of the summit, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington would provide a new $2.3 billion in aid. dollar package, which will include important air defense.
According to one diplomat, with more air defenses, Zelensky will at least be able to feel like he’s won. “What would you like more? Beautiful but meaningless words in the declaration, or military support? It is clear that the president of Ukraine wants military support,” said the diplomat.
2024-07-08 08:14:24