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Betting on Kamala Harris’s victory is more expensive than on Trump, indicating her favoritism in November
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Betting on the victory of Kamala Harris in the United States presidential elections is more expensive than placing bets on her rival Donald Trump. This means that the Democrat has a greater chance of winning in November. At least, that is what the betting markets indicate.
According to the PredictIt website, used as a reference by the financial market to evaluate betting odds on the candidates in the race, Kamala’s chance of victory this weekend stands at 58% compared to 45% for Trump. The sum of the probabilities does not necessarily add up to 100%.
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This is because the percentages actually represent the values of the bets on each candidate. In the latest pricing, betting on Kamala’s victory cost $0.58 (or R$ 3.20). Betting on Trump’s victory was slightly cheaper: $0.45 (R$ 2.48).
In other words, betting on the defeat of the Democratic candidate is cheaper – $0.42 – than betting on the defeat of the former president. The best offer for those who do not believe in a new term for the Republican stands at $0.56 (R$ 3.08). In other words, nearly the same price for anyone wanting to buy the “yes” on Kamala Harris’s chances of winning.
Place your bets
This represents a turnaround in the betting table. To give an idea, a day before the then-candidate Joe Biden‘s withdrawal from the White House race on July 20, the vice president’s chance of victory cost $0.27 (R$ 1.49 at current exchange rates) – or 27%. Even so, it was greater than the probability of the Democrat’s reelection, which cost $0.15 (R$ 0.8), equivalent to 15%.
At that time, Trump was the clear favorite candidate. Betting on him to win the presidential election cost $0.64 (R$ 3.52). However, since then, the Republican’s significant advantage has been decreasing.
The new Democratic candidate took the lead on July 31, holding 53% against 49% – or $0.53 (R$ 2.92) versus $0.49 (R$ 2.70) in the betting market. So far, Kamala Harris remains in the lead, at least in these markets.
Horse Racing
Just like in a horse race, betting on the favorite runner is more expensive than on the “underdog.” In the case of the presidential race, the candidate with fewer bets and, therefore, fewer chances of winning is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. According to PredictIt, betting on him costs $0.01 (R$ 0.06).
Nikki Haley, also from the Republican Party, competes with DeSantis for the few chances to win. The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN) has dropped from $0.02 (R$ 0.12) to $0.01 in the betting market. Meanwhile, independent candidate Robert Kenney Jr. is ahead of both, quoted at $0.02.