The Karakalpakstan crisis arises exclusively from internal dynamics within Uzbekistan. Not Russia, not China, or Kazakhstan, as some are suggesting in these hours, have a role in the revolt, explains Aldo Ferrari, an analyst at the ISPI of Milan and the Cà Foscari University of Venice, in an interview with the time.news. Apparently this is a “road accident”, “a political error” by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, associated with a traditional lack of attention and investment by Tashkent, in Karakalpakstan, not a “renewed authoritarian involution” of the country .
“It is the most depressed region in the country. Instead of contributing to development, Karakalpakstan has been particularly affected by the ecological disaster of the Aral Sea. It would need priority attention from the state, but it is excluded. This reform proposal it was the straw that broke the camel’s back, “Ferrari explains. The President’s announcement, confirmed by Parliament’s vote, for the withdrawal of the amendments to the Constitution to cancel the possibility of autonomy in the region “should, within certain limits, serve to calm spirits, but economic dissatisfaction will continue”.
“Uzbekistan has embarked on a limited but real development and liberalization process in recent years”. Mirziyoyev wanted to change the country’s image and tries to attract foreign investment. “This crisis interrupts the roadmap which, until now, had been positive. The revolt, and the harsh repression, is certainly not what Uzbekistan needs today. The President seems to have realized that he has committed a mistake”. Tashkent’s inattention to the region stems from its large size, and the fact that it is sparsely populated with no resources and inhabited mainly by non-Uzbek populations: Kazakhs, Caracalpacians, Uzbeks and Turkmen. “It is perceived as an uninteresting foreign body.”
“Russia, in the post-Soviet space and in Central Asia, has a very important role. But these countries have been independent for 30 years and have complicated internal dynamics that only partly concern Russia”, specifies the analyst, recalling the initial revolt. year in Kazakhstan, where “Russia intervened but to resolve a crisis that had internal political reasons”.
Some suspect that Kazakhstan has thrown fuel on the fire. “Indeed, it could be a stimulating objective, not so much independence as the region’s entry into Kazakhstan. However, these are quite abstract arguments. And even if the Uzbek government has covertly alluded to foreign forces, the unrest is socio-economic right.”
China also calls for the stability of Uzbekistan as a priority. Neither China nor Russia “have an interest in blowing the fire”. China penetrates easily with its products, Russia deals with the security of the region with the CSTO. “An optimal situation for both Beijing and Moscow. This crisis does not arise from them, but from internal dynamics, above all due to the evident scarcity of socio-economic development that the populations can no longer bear”.
“Between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, then, there is no real enmity. There are difficulties. Minorities. Rivalry for the first place in Central Asia: Kazakhstan is far richer, but Uzbekistan is more populous and has a much greater cultural tradition. They are in competition, but nothing more “. “In Central Asia, cooperation between countries is rather limited. The President for the first time at least tried to start cooperation at the regional level, trying to take steps in this direction, even if only with meetings with the other Presidents, to negotiate issues such as border control, security, irrigation “, sums up Ferrari, specifying that these steps” have not brought great results for now, but at least the attempt is greeted positively “.
The independence of Karakalpakstan was not an issue on the agenda. But even the mere possibility is considered inadmissible by Mirziyoyev, who, while liberalizing some sectors of the economy, wants to maintain – like many other more advanced states – full control of the territory. In recent years there have been political movements of small size and limited to the caracalpaca component only. “But independence hasn’t become a demand for the entire population of the region.”
“After this revolt, the government will be forced to pay more attention to the north-western region. The resources needed are not huge, what Karakalpakstan is asking for is, after all, in the economic possibilities of the central government. Up to now the political will has been lacking. There is a possibility that now this will change “, concludes Ferrari, who directs research on Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia at the ISPI and teaches History of Eurasia at the Cà Foscari University.