NSW Coalition Faces Imminent Fracture as Leadership Challenge Looms
The New South Wales Liberal-National Coalition is bracing for a period of intense instability, potentially culminating in a leadership change and a fracturing of the opposition. Over the next fortnight, the state’s Liberal party may oust current leader Mark Speakman as it struggles too reconcile deeply divergent positions on net zero emissions with its coalition partner, the Nationals.
For years, the NSW Coalition has been comparatively more unified than its federal counterpart. However, that era appears to be over. The current turmoil arrives as the Labor premier, Chris Minns, enjoys a period of political strength, watching as the Liberal brand suffers setbacks at the national level.
Concurrently, the NSW Liberals are navigating their own internal challenges. Unlike their federal colleagues, who are described as “revel[ing] in their self-destruction,” the NSW division is reluctantly moving toward a leadership transition. There is a growing sentiment that Speakman, while personally well-regarded, has failed to effectively challenge the popularity of Premier Minns.
A new Resolve poll, expected this week, is highly likely to reveal a further decline in the Coalition’s primary vote – a predictable outcome given the damage to the party’s image at the federal level. In July, the NSW Coalition’s primary vote fell to 32%, compared to Labor’s 38%, a result analysts suggest could translate to a loss of approximately 10 seats.This decline is causing anxiety among MPs in marginal constituencies and those facing extended periods in opposition. The federal Coalition’s current primary vote of just 24%,according to Newspoll,only exacerbates these fears.
Speakman’s potential removal is not expected to occur until the second week of the current parliamentary sitting period. His supporters are hoping he will agree to resign, allowing a new leader to be installed without the immediate scrutiny of question time and providing time to settle in over the Christmas break.
The frontrunner to succeed Speakman is Kellie Sloane, the first-term MP for Vaucluse. A former Channel Nine journalist, Sloane is considered a strong communicator who has already proven capable of challenging Minns. Supporters beleive her established relationships with media outlets like The Daily Telegraph and 2GB’s Ben Fordham could help counter Minns’ favorable media coverage.
Though, Sloane’s relative inexperience is a concern. Having only been in parliament for under three years and lacking prior ministerial experience, she faces a steep learning curve. The situation echoes the experience of Jodi McKay, a former Labor leader and journalist who, despite her background, struggled to navigate the internal dynamics and political pressures of her party and was ultimately ousted by then-Premier Gladys Berejiklian.
The deep-seated factional infighting within the NSW Liberal party, publicly visible during the 2022 federal election preselections, further complicates the situation. A lack of a cohesive party machine and ongoing ideological battles are seen as detrimental to effective governance or opposition.
Adding to the complexity is the looming confrontation with the Nationals over net zero. Speakman has attempted to avoid direct conflict on issues like feral horses and koala habitat preservation through a strategy of “agreeing to disagree.” However, managing fundamentally different policies on critical issues like climate change and energy will be a significant challenge.
The question of how to prevent a “teal wave” – a surge in support for autonomous candidates focused on climate action – on the north shore and elsewhere is also weighing on the Liberals, particularly if the Nationals are perceived as dictating policy. Some within the party are even discussing a potential split from the Nationals as a possible solution, though this could create long-term challenges for policy cohesion and electoral success.
Speakman, or more likely Sloane, will face a difficult path forward. The primary risk for Sloane is that her inexperience could lead to missteps that damage her credibility and ultimately render her ineffective.
