Key rate continued its way – Kommersant FM – Kommersant

The central bank may further increase the key rate next year, said its chairman Elvira Nabiullina. On December 17, the regulator increased this indicator from 7.5% at once by 100 basis points. Moreover, the monetary policy of the Central Bank will continue to tighten until inflation stops growing in the country. Leading banks have already hinted at double-digit deposit rates. How else could the key rate change? And where will the Central Bank’s decisions lead the economy? About this – Vladimir Rasulov.

Strictly speaking, the increase in the key rate by percentage point did not come as a surprise. The central bank, in fact, announced it back in October and then hinted at it at least twice. Moreover, as the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference, the board of directors of the Central Bank had alternatives – to raise the rate by 50 or 75 points. And the upward trend will not go away at the next meetings either.

“Most likely, we have not yet reached the rigidity of monetary conditions that is needed to bring inflation back to target next year. Therefore, we admit the possibility of an additional rate hike at the next meetings. But the situation can change. Even if the rate remains unchanged, the severity of conditions may increase if inflation and inflationary expectations decrease, ”Nabiullina said.

As conceived by the Central Bank, a tight monetary policy will bring inflation down to 4-4.5% by the end of next year. Now it exceeds 8% – and this is twice the target. The pace of price growth accelerated after the government last year began to support the economy in a pandemic, and later the prices for building materials and food increased due to logistics problems, says Oleg Zamulin, director of the Sberbank Center for Macroeconomic Research.

And the Central Bank’s tactics can really work, since the current causes of inflation are unlikely to persist in 2022. “Next year, firstly, the effect of last year’s support measures will end, and secondly, one-time factors also cannot last forever. Therefore, inflation is likely to go down. And there may be no further rate hikes, ”Zamulin says.

Now the key rate is at the highest level since the fall of 2017. The Central Bank estimates the annual growth rate at around 8%. Meanwhile, according to the latest poll by “Infom”, inflationary expectations of Russians reached their maximum in five years and rose from 13.5% to almost 15%. In such conditions, the key rate will definitely have to be raised, and more than once, the investment strategist of the management company Arikapital Sergei Suverov is sure: “Now the rate of the Central Bank of 8.5% is slightly higher than inflation. The annual rate is 8.4%.

For there to be any real effect, the key rate must exceed inflation by about 1-1.5%. Therefore, I think we can see somewhere else two or three increases. “

However, for Russians there is also a tangible plus in the policy of the Central Bank. Along with the key, the rates on deposits will continue to grow, and as a result, the yield on savings products in the new year may become double-digit, says Maxim Stepochkin, Head of the Savings Department of VTB: “Now the largest players in the market are already showing profitability on ruble deposits in the region of 9% per annum and it is likely to grow to 9.5% or more. In 2022, the indicators of a number of players, taking into account promotional offers, may even exceed 10%, but the average rate will be at the level of 8% per annum. ”

The attention of journalists after the meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate was attracted not only by the decisions of the regulator, but also by another brooch by Elvira Nabiullina. The head of the regulator not so long ago admitted that she sends certain signals to the market with different decorations. This time, the Nutcracker was on the lapel of her suit. Banking pool journalists suggested that this is a symbol of the solution to the complex problems facing the Central Bank, and at the same time the coming New Year. However, how exactly this is connected with the increase in the key rate is not fully understood.



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