Kim Jong-un’s rare trip to Russia this month has sparked speculation about military aid for President Vladimir V. Putin’s Ukraine war effort. For North Korea, this could provide an opportunity for technical assistance with its weapons programs and a chance to be needed by an important neighbor. Relations between Russia and North Korea have at times been tense, but their common interests and worldview are now bringing them closer.
The United States has expressed concerns about North Korea potentially shipping artillery shells and rockets to Russia and negotiating for more arms deals. Western officials’ claims that Kim Jong-un will travel to Russia indicate that there is growing intent to move forward with this collaboration. Russia’s assistance could help North Korea overcome its technological hurdles in nuclear and missile programs, as well as address its dire economic needs.
Lee Byong-chul, a North Korea expert, sees this collaboration as a win-win situation for both parties. However, questions remain about how much North Korean aid could significantly contribute to Russia’s war effort, considering North Korea’s economic difficulties and chronic food shortages. The North may already have a surplus of ammunition, and its armaments are compatible with Russia’s arsenal.
A deal with Russia could raise tensions around the Korean Peninsula, leading to the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and potentially pushing South Korea and Japan to strengthen their military cooperation with the United States. Increased military exchanges between Russia and North Korea would undermine peace and security in Europe and Asia, according to analysts.
Kim Jong-un’s potential trip to Russia would be his first since his initial official visit in 2019. Since taking power, Kim has focused on building a nuclear arsenal and reviving North Korea’s economy. Following the collapse of diplomacy with former US President Donald Trump, Kim has sought to align closely with Beijing and Moscow against the United States-dominated world order.
Kim’s strategy has already provided benefits, allowing North Korea to conduct missile tests despite resolutions from the United Nations Security Council. Both Russia and China have veto power at the Council and have opposed new penalties against North Korea. High-ranking officials from Russia and China visited Pyongyang in July, symbolizing the deepening ties among the countries.
Analysts believe Kim Jong-un is trying to elevate his relevance by aligning closely with Russia during this “new Cold War” era. During his trip, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu suggested joint military drills with North Korea and China to counter trilateral military cooperation in the region by the United States, South Korea, and Japan.
Although Russia currently offers little economic aid or trade to North Korea, it possesses crucial technologies that could help advance North Korea’s weapons programs. Western experts remain skeptical about North Korea’s ability to make its nuclear warheads small and light enough for intercontinental range. The country has also faced challenges in launching military spy satellites into orbit and building its first ballistic missile submarine.
While economic assistance from Russia may be limited, North Korea needs technological help, as its major weapons projects are based on Russian technology. The collaboration between Russia and North Korea could have significant implications for regional peace and security, as well as the balance of power in Northeast Asia.