Time.news – The state of health of Kim Jong-un raises doubts about the future of North Korea. A visibly thinner Kim appeared in the regime’s media last month when the Workers’ Party he heads met in plenary session.
The regime has closed in a hedgehog, sealing the borders after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, and perceiving the changes in the structures that regulate it has become even more complicated for analysts of the Pyongyang scene, but the loss of the leader has awakened perplexity even among the residents of the North Korean capital, who in the state media have described him as “emaciated” in recent days.
From the outside, the analyzes are divided into two main areas: if weight loss were the signal of greater attention to one’s health, on the political level it could translate into a “greater predictability” of the regime towards regional actors and for United States; if the weight loss were, on the other hand, the sign of a deterioration in the conditions of the young dictator, it would pose strong doubts about his possible succession at the top of the party and the state, in the absence of a dolphin.
In assessing Kim’s condition, excessive smoking, alcohol consumption and an inappropriate diet – which led him to almost 140 kilograms of weight – mix with the well-known health problems that have shaken his family for generations, such as diabetes and heart disease.
The new fears are also fueled by the thinning out of the North Korean leader’s public appearances, absences that in the last year have given rise to strong speculations, some of which even wanted him to die. In addition to the leader’s evident weight loss, the climate inside the country appears far from being rosy. Kim himself has raised the alarm for a “tense situation” in terms of food, probably as a consequence of the collapse of trade with China after the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan.
Covid ‘absent’ in the country
The scenario also appears complicated in terms of the containment of Covid-19, of which there is officially no trace in North Korea, a figure that everyone strongly doubts: in recent days the seats of some senior officials have jumped for a no better specified “serious accident” related to the pandemic.
The signals coming from Pyongyang, experts warn, could, however, be, in some way, misleading: after the North Koreans began to talk about the state of health of the leader – Rachel Lee, former analyst of the scene, explains to the Financial Times North Korean for the US government – the country’s authorities took the opportunity to exploit the new image of the dictator, emphasizing Kim’s “sacrifices and hard work” for his people.
A new management of power
This detail would reflect the change in leadership style inaugurated by Kim, which also includes the recognition of some weaknesses and errors, and which has led to an increase in transparency compared to the past.
The risk, in essence, is that of excessive speculation can generate a “false alarm” on the continuity of the regime. To try to understand the current state of the country, and its leadership, all that remains is to rely on the perceptions of intelligence.
According to reports from Seoul, Kim has established the post of “first secretary” of the Workers’ Party. The new office would serve to pave the way for the designation of a de facto number 2 in the organization chart of the ruling party in North Korea, and the new role would be entrusted to a close ally of the young dictator: Jo Yong-won, a member of the Politburo, the party’s political bureau.
Kim does not seem, however, willing to leave the scene: again according to what emerges from the diplomatic circles in Seoul, the North Korean leader would have had a correspondence with Moon Jae-in at the turn of the summit with the US president, Joe Biden, and by leaders of the two Koreas would have emerged the hypothesis of a new summit.
The meeting would reopen the dialogue after the freezing of relations on the failure of negotiations with the US for the abandonment of nuclear weapons. While seeming distant as a hypothesis – also considering the fact that Moon’s presidential term will expire next year – some experts have recently perceived a softening of Pyongyang, and have pointed out that the criticisms of South Korea and its president have faded in recent weeks.
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