2023-05-18 16:18:00
Rocket battle over Kyiv
Kinshal and Patriot – who knocked out who?
A Patriot launcher launches an interceptor missile.
© Picture Alliance
Moscow attacked a Patriot battery in Kiev a few days ago. The multi-stage attack was a success, with the US admitting that the system was damaged. Kiev claims to have shot down at least six Kinshall.
On the night of May 16, a missile battle broke out in the airspace over Kiev. Both sides report amazing successes. Kiev claims to have intercepted six Kinshal missiles at once, and there are even reports of nine. In addition, other Russian missiles are said to have been intercepted. A 100% success of the air defense – Moscow had not managed to hit. Russia, on the other hand, claims to have destroyed an entire Patriot system.
As expected, both reports are incorrect. Kyiv was immediately caught cheating. Multiple webcams show an impact and explosion on the ground. Previously, a mass launch of rockets could be shown. The next day it was confirmed that one of Ukraine’s Patriot systems – out of two – had been “damaged”. A Patriot system is mobile and consists of several components: the launchers that fire the anti-missiles, the radar and a command system. If possible, the individual modules are not set up in one place, but distributed – so that a hit can destroy individual modules, but not the entire system. It is unclear whether and how the Ukrainian soldiers were able to distribute their battery. Because the system is placed within the built-up city, the choice of suitable locations is far less than in the open air. It is very unlikely that the entire battery was destroyed – as the Russian side suggests. The Russian Ministry of Defense even reports the loss of five Patriot batteries. The fact that Kiev only has two does not bother the Kremlin. US officials said the radar component was not damaged. They assume that the Patriot does not even have to be removed from the field for repairs. So there should only have been minor damage. Other reports said debris fell from a roof onto the Patriot’s modules. The information on both sides cannot be confirmed.
Attack on the defensive battery
The attack on Kiev was a targeted, multi-stage attack against the Patriot system. Presumably, the first missiles should cause the facility’s radar to be activated to target the location. After that, you might have tried to jam that radar and then land your own hit. Shortly before the impact, the battery launched 30 rockets in quick succession, they could not prevent the hit. Russian commentators assumed a panic reaction from the team. That was certainly not the case, it could rather have been a calculated reaction. When the battery operators realized they were under attack and had no means of repelling the impact, all rockets were launched to reduce the consequential explosions in the event of a Russian hit, thus protecting surrounding civilians and buildings. If so, it is a heroic act on the part of the operators. Whether the salvo actually shot down six or more Kinshal missiles, as Kiev suggests, remains doubtful as long as no debris is shown.
Kinshah can be intercepted
Earlier the question arose whether the Patriot would be able to intercept a Kinshal-type hypersonic weapon (Kh-47 Kinzhal – that’s why Ukraine was able to shoot down one of Putin’s “invincible” hypersonic missiles). Ukraine claims that it succeeded. However, an unconvincing hodgepodge of rubble was later presented as evidence. In principle it is possible. The Kinshal – meaning dagger – is a variant of the Iskander ballistic missile that is launched from an aircraft. This weapon can reach speeds in excess of five times the speed of sound. However, it does not have the high maneuverability that “real” hypersonic weapons bring with them. For this purpose, the warhead should reduce the speed in the final phase before impact. The Patriot system was specially (further) developed to ward off such ballistic missiles. The question can be answered with a clear “yes” (MIM-104 Patriot – with this anti-aircraft system Kiev can repel Russia’s air offensive).
High speed reduces the defensive zone
Still, the Kinshal missiles are no less dangerous. How come? In the case of very fast-moving objects, the area of application of the air defense shrinks. Most often, the “protective bell” of air defense is depicted as a circle. That is not correct. In fact, it is always an ellipse. Range and hit probability increase as the attacker moves toward the center, where the battery is located. This is the long side of the defensive ellipse. Range and hit probability decrease as course goes past the battery. Here the circle flattens out. Key factors in this deformation of the ideal circle into a lens are the course and speed of the target. The faster, the flatter the ellipse becomes. This means that even if the Patriot can intercept the Kinshal, the protected space is shrinking. In order to be able to protect large areas of Ukraine, it would be necessary to have a large number of defense batteries. This factor makes hypersonic weapons so interesting. It’s not impossible to fend them off, it just gets a lot more expensive to build a defense.
Unclear course of the amgriff
Only in one case does the described effect not have an effect: when the battery is very close to the impact target or when it is the target itself, then the battery is always directly on the trajectory, as in Kiev. in short. The Patriot’s self-defence or property protection capabilities are high, but their ability to protect the airspace of large areas is significantly reduced.
This conclusion comes from the speed factor alone. In the attack on the night of the 16th, “hypersonic” must not have played a decisive role. If it really was an alarm launch of 30 anti-missiles, that would be a sign that the Patriot battery was helpless even before it was hit. The Russians would then have been able to jam the Patriot’s radar or other electronics.
There are no “silver bullets”
But even this result would not change the value of the Patriot and comparable systems for Ukraine. The audience loves the idea of ”miracle weapons” against which the opponent can do nothing. There is no such thing in wars. Despite the significantly improved air defenses, the Russians can show videos of attacks in Ukraine every evening. Air defense has gaps and is never 100 percent successful. Even superior weapons are decimated in war. If all the modern weapons from the West are used, there will inevitably be casualties – including the Leopard 2.
Also read:
Kh-47 Kinzhal – that’s why Ukraine was able to shoot down one of Putin’s “invincible” hypersonic missiles
MIM-104 Patriot – with this anti-aircraft system, Kiev can repel Russia’s air offensive
Leopard 2 – Ukraine is waiting for this German super tank
#Kinshal #Patriot #knocked