The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over $669 in Kalshi bets he placed in 2024 and 2025, wagering that he would receive a presidential pardon from Joe Biden.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over his $669 in wagers on the prediction platform Kalshi, where he bet that he would receive a presidential pardon from Joe Biden. The trades, made in late 2024 and early 2025, sparked scrutiny after Kinzinger, a Republican and prominent Trump critic, acknowledged the bets in an interview with CNN. The CFTC’s probe marks the first publicly known federal inquiry into pardon markets on prediction sites, raising questions about the regulation of such platforms.
The CFTC’s Probe into Kinzinger’s Kalshi Bets
Kinzinger’s trades occurred during a period when Biden pardoned several lawmakers, including Kinzinger, in the final hours of his presidency to shield them from potential retaliation by the incoming Trump administration. According to a person familiar with the matter, the CFTC is examining whether Kinzinger violated rules by betting on a pardon he later received. The regulator’s interest in the case follows reports of potential insider activity on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users wager on political and economic outcomes.
Kinzinger’s Defense and the Broader Regulation Debate
Kalshi flagged Kinzinger’s trades during an internal review of “suspicious” activity, according to a source familiar with the matter. The platform attempted to contact him but received no response. A Kalshi spokesperson declined to comment, as did the CFTC. Kinzinger told CNN he had not heard from investigators and reiterated that he had no conversations with the Biden White House about pardons.
The case highlights tensions over the legal boundaries of prediction markets. While Kinzinger argued he acted within his rights, regulators are increasingly wary of scenarios where traders might profit from non-public information. As the CFTC’s investigation unfolds, the outcome could set a precedent for how such markets are policed, with implications for both users and platforms like Kalshi.