As West Bengal prepares for Durga Puja celebrations amid an approaching Bay of Bengal depression, the Alipur Meteorological Department forecasts scattered light to moderate rain across Kolkata and surrounding districts from Thursday through Ashtami, while the southwest monsoon begins withdrawing from the state.
Festive preparations across Kolkata and districts throughout West Bengal are running at full tilt as pandels ready for crowds. Yet the transition from Mahalaya into the holiday calendar comes with an atmospheric twist. While the southwest monsoon is withdrawing from Sikkim, most of West Bengal, Assam, parts of Meghalaya, and Andhra Pradesh, a fresh weather system is taking shape over the southeastern Bay of Bengal.
Low Pressure Formation and Monsoon Withdrawal in West Bengal
Meteorologists tracking the region report that an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Malacca Strait extends up to 9.4 kilometers above sea level and is expected to enter the Andaman Sea. According to warnings issued by the India Meteorological Department, this activity will likely coalesce into a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13. Forecasters note that the system’s eventual trajectory will determine local conditions.
If the system tracks northwest toward Odisha or the upper Bay of Bengal, moisture inflow into West Bengal will increase. If it curves toward the southern Indian coastline, its local footprint will diminish. Concurrently, the monsoon withdrawal line extends through Ranchi, and officials anticipate that the complete exit from remaining parts of the state will align with this week’s change in wind patterns.
Rain Forecast from Panchami to Ashtami
While early festival days maintain dry skies, conditions are slated to change as the midweek approaches. Kolkata temperatures hover near a maximum of 31.9 degrees Celsius and a minimum of 25.1 degrees Celsius, with light humidity in the air. Clear weather holds through Tuesday and Wednesday morning, but clouds gather by Thursday.
- Panchami: Light rain or thundershowers are expected in isolated spots across Kolkata, Howrah, North and South 24 Parganas, and East and West Medinipur.
- Sashti: Cloud cover deepens, bringing light to moderate rain with gusty winds reaching 30 to 40 kilometers per hour across Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Jhargram, and the two 24 Parganas.
- Saptami: Intermittent light to moderate precipitation continues across coastal and southern districts, while northern hill zones such as Darjeeling and Kalimpong experience minor localized showers.
- Ashtami: South 24 Parganas, East and West Medinipur, and Jhargram face scattered damp spells during the rituals, while northern districts see mostly dry conditions save for a few isolated areas in Jalpaiguri.
Skies Clear for Navami and Dashami
The closing days of the festival offer relief for pandel-hoppers and organizers alike. Weather models indicate that moisture levels will recede starting Sunday, bringing dry conditions back to South Bengal just in time for Navami and Dashami. Meteorologists emphasize that no heavy rain or major storm warnings are currently active for the state, meaning the disturbance will yield only scattered interruptions rather than a washout.
As northerly breezes begin to influence the upper atmosphere following the monsoon’s departure, night temperatures are projected to drop gradually, offering a hint of autumn chill after the humid daytime hours.
Will the approaching depression track northwest toward Odisha or curve toward the southern Indian coastline?