2024-07-18 10:28:14
[밀려오는 ‘트럼프노믹스’]
Trump’s ‘additional pressure’ warning Export emergency
When China imposes retaliatory tariffs, exports to China also worsen
“It is urgent to diversify exports to India, Southeast Asia, etc.”
As US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump threatens a tariff bomb on imported goods, the US exports, which are recording the highest performance ever, are in danger of being put on alert. If the tariffs are imposed, not only will exports to the US suffer a blow, but exports to China will also inevitably decline as the Chinese economy slows down after being hit by the tariff bomb.
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 17th, exports to the US in the first half of this year (January to June) amounted to $64.3 billion, up 16.8% from the same period last year ($55.07 billion). This is the highest performance ever for a half-year. Due to the increase in demand for artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor exports surged 52.2%, and automobile exports also increased 29.8% due to increased exports of eco-friendly cars. General machinery exports also increased 31.1% due to the increase in demand for robots and industrial machinery.
The government expects that exports of key items such as semiconductors and automobiles will continue to rise in the second half of the year (July to December), and that exports will reach around $690 billion this year. In order to achieve the export target ($700 billion) set at the beginning of this year, the government plans to provide various types of support, such as additional trade insurance supply.
However, as candidate Trump has once again made it clear that he will impose a 10% “universal basic tariff” on all imports from all countries, it is expected that Korean exports will inevitably be hit. The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) recently estimated that if the U.S. imposes a 10% universal tariff on Korea, exports to the U.S. will decrease by $15.2 billion (approximately 21 trillion won).
The ‘Trump risk’ is also expected to further worsen the slump in public exports. According to the trade association, the amount of public exports in the first half of this year was $63.4 billion, down about 22% from the previous record of $81.4 billion in 2022. The top 10 export items for 2022, including semiconductors, synthetic resins, and wireless communication devices, all saw a decrease in exports.
In particular, the decline in exports of the four major information technology (IT) items, which accounted for half (45.3%) of public exports, was notable. In the first half of this year, computer exports plunged 63.5% compared to two years ago, and flat panel displays and sensors (-33.8%), wireless communication devices (-24.1%), and semiconductors (-18.4%) also could not avoid export declines.
Candidate Trump also announced that he would impose tariffs of 60-100% on Chinese imports. If tariffs of that amount are actually imposed and the Chinese economy is shaken, Korea’s export performance will inevitably worsen. Swiss investment bank UBS predicted that if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese products, China’s annual economic growth rate will plummet by more than half.
Kim Sang-bong, a professor of economics at Hansung University, said, “If the Chinese economy slows down, we, who export a lot of intermediate goods, will inevitably suffer direct and indirect damage,” adding, “As uncertainty over exports to the U.S. increases, diversification of exports to India and Southeast Asia is urgent.”
Sejong = Reporter Jeong Soon-gu [email protected]
-
- great
- 0dog
-
- I’m so sad
- 0dog
-
- I’m angry
- 0dog
-
- I recommend it
- dog
Hot news right now
2024-07-18 10:28:14