2023-07-15 23:56:35
The meeting of the Kremlin with Prigozhin caused quite a stir and raised a lot of conjecture. Renowned commentator Boris Rozhin (former director of the Russian space agency Roscosmos) talks about it from his blog “Colonel Cassad”, a constantly updated and well-informed Russian-language blog.
Damage Control – Source: – Posted Jul 10 at 3:08pm.
Today it is interesting to observe the bewilderment that emerges from the reports of the meeting between Putin and Prigozhin. Putin is said to have bluntly called Prigozhin a subversive and then met with him.
It is clear that the overall situation requires a non-emotional approach to the story
Legally, Prigozhin is no longer considered a mutineer, as the criminal case regarding the evidence of rebellion has been dropped and no new cases have been opened. Therefore, there are no new legal charges against Prigozhin, at least for now. The interviews with witnesses and the study of the evidence on the deaths of the pilots continue. Therefore, there are no legal obstacles to these meetings.
From a political and historical point of view, the Prigozhin mutiny on June 23-24 has not been forgotten and will be remembered in history books. However, a meeting between Putin and Prigozhin is politically desirable to resolve many issues that were not addressed during the June 24 negotiations, which were also attended by Belarusian President Lukashenko and Federal Security Service director Bortnikov. During those negotiations, Prigozhin received general guarantees of security, but doubts remained about the future of the Wagner private military companies, Prigozhin’s business affairs, and his personal interests. It emerged that the state was heavily dependent on Prigozhin’s facilities in different areas, and their simultaneous destruction would cause serious damage. Therefore, the personnel involved with Prigozhin’s facilities are being reviewed, allowing the state to gently replace those facilities in several areas, while Prigozhin retains a portion of his assets.
After the events of June 23-24, Putin tried to minimize the consequences, avoiding disastrous scenarios such as concessions to the rebels or clashes that would have resulted in mass massacres in Rostov and the Moscow region. Among the various options available, the one that caused the least damage to the common interest was chosen, minimizing losses (even if it is not possible to bring dead pilots back to life). The threat of mutiny was eliminated, allowing the state to retain the ability to use PMC Wagner personnel, but with different conditions. There are dissatisfied people who did not foresee how the interaction between Wagner and Rosgvardiya in Rostov and the Moscow region would end. However, of the options available, this was the most acceptable, although it required various political compromises.
As a result, PMC Wagner will not be dissolved, but will undergo a restructuring, as I wrote on June 25th. For the same reasons, Prigozhin can move freely around the country, maintaining part of his business in Russia and recovering arms and money. At the same time, his appearances are being limited in the state media to reduce the popularity of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner among the masses, a popularity that was previously strongly promoted by the state media. His media right to present himself as a patriot was revoked, depriving Prigozhin of most of his media opportunities in domestic politics and nullifying his political ambitions, along with parts of his contracts, including those with the Defense Ministry.
The Chief of Staff General Gerasimov and Defense Minister Shoigu are not expected to be fired under pressure from Prigozhin’s accusations. Even if Putin decides to make leadership changes for whatever reason, such changes will only occur when they do not appear to be a consequence of the Prigozhin Mutiny. I don’t recall any instances where Putin fired anyone due to outside pressure. Therefore, Shoigu and Gerasimov confidently appear in the media, showing that no changes are foreseen for the time being and they will continue to fulfill their duties. Some uncertainties remain about General Surovikin’s future, but I believe he will have a favorable fate.
Part of Wagner’s personnel will move to Belarus, some will enter into contracts with the Ministry of Defense and others will leave. This process is already underway. The heavy weapons will be returned to the Ministry of Defense warehouse, which originally supplied them to PMC Wagner. All financial matters concerning the fighters and their families will be resolved. The return of the money to Prigozhin also serves to cover the expected payments for the fighters and commanders of the Wagner.
In general, what is being planned is a “damage control” operation. The fact that the meeting between Putin and Prigozhin surprised many demonstrates how misguided many “experts” were about the leadership’s strategy for dealing with the aftermath of the Prigozhin mutiny.
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