Portugal Reels from Consecutive Storms, Expert Warns of Intensifying Weather Patterns
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A series of powerful storms – Ingrid, Joseph, and Kristin – battered mainland Portugal between January 22nd and 28th, leaving at least ten people dead and widespread devastation, particularly in the districts of Leiria, Coimbra, and Santarém. While such sequences aren’t unheard of, experts suggest a changing climate is likely to exacerbate the intensity of future weather events.
Unprecedented Sequence, Familiar Patterns
The recent onslaught of storms is “not a very frequent thing,” according to an atmospheric physicist and professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, but not entirely without precedent. The expert explained that these events, known as “trains of depressions,” are a natural part of Portugal’s transitional climate, situated between subtropical and mid-latitude zones. “We have always had and will always have these processes,” the professor stated.
However, the current situation is linked to the unusual positioning of the Azores anticyclone further south than normal. Typically, this high-pressure system exhibits a north-south pulsation, but this movement has been absent in recent weeks. Combined with persistent high-pressure systems over Scandinavia, this has created a pathway for storms originating in the North Atlantic to track eastward toward Portugal and the United Kingdom.
The ‘Sting Jet’ Phenomenon
The most recent storm, Kristin, was particularly severe due to the development of a “sting storm” or “sting jet” – a rare but potent meteorological phenomenon. These jets, characterized by intense precipitation and wind, were previously observed in Portugal in 2009 and 2018, coinciding with Hurricane Leslie. The result was a storm of unprecedented wind force.
The expert cautioned that assessing the true rarity of such events is complicated by improvements in observational technology. “The ability to observe the Earth today is very different from what it was a century ago or 50 years ago,” they noted, adding that the history of detailed storm observation is relatively recent.
Portugal’s Climate Variability and Future Risks
Portugal’s geographical location makes it particularly susceptible to climate fluctuations. The country experiences significant climate variability, ranging from the wettest areas in Gerês to the driest in Alcoutim. This inherent variability, the expert explained, means that even seemingly small planetary shifts can have a disproportionately large impact on the region.
While the expert refrained from directly attributing the recent storms to climate change, they emphasized a clear trend: Portugal will likely experience more frequent extremes in precipitation – both intense rainfall and prolonged drought. “This is, let’s say, the state of the scientific art,” they said. “Now if we have a very rainy week or two months, we cannot immediately say that it is climate change, that this is abnormal.”
Intensifying Storms, Rising Temperatures
Projections consistently indicate that Portugal will face higher temperatures and more frequent heat waves, phenomena already demonstrably linked to climate change. Furthermore, while the number of storms impacting Portugal may not significantly increase, their intensity is expected to rise.
“We have higher temperatures, therefore we have more evaporation, we have more water vapor content in the atmosphere,” the expert explained. “We have a more energetic system when these depressions form” and an ocean with more accumulated energy, ultimately leading to more severe storms.
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The expert concluded that Portugal’s unique climate position makes it particularly vulnerable to the escalating effects of a changing global climate, demanding increased preparedness and mitigation efforts.
