Labour Party Secures Surprising Victory in Scottish By-Election, Boosting Hopes for National Election Success
October 6, 2023
London – In a surprising turn of events, Britain’s opposition Labour Party has emerged victorious in a parliamentary by-election in Scotland, exceeding expectations and raising hopes of unseating the Scottish nationalists and winning a UK-wide vote expected next year.
The Labour Party is currently leading Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party in national opinion polls. However, in order to return to government in Westminster after a 13-year absence, Labour will need to regain much of the ground lost to the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland over the last decade.
“This is a seismic result. People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message – it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it,” said Labour leader Keir Starmer in a statement.
The by-election in the outskirts of Glasgow was called after lawmaker Margaret Ferrier was stripped of her seat in London’s parliament for breaking COVID-19 rules. Labour candidate Michael Shanks received a total of 17,845 votes, beating the second-placed SNP candidate Katy Loudon who received 8,399 votes. The swing to Labour from the SNP was a significant 20%.
Renowned pollster John Curtice described the result as “remarkable” for the Labour Party, particularly as it comes just ahead of their annual conference next week. “By-election swings on this scale are the kind of swings that, historically at least, oppositions have secured when they’re going to go on to win the next general election,” Curtice said in an interview with BBC Radio.
The victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West holds the potential to significantly strengthen Labour’s chances of obtaining an overall majority, thereby avoiding a hung parliament. It is a much-needed breakthrough for Labour, as the SNP had swept away most of their Scottish strongholds in 2015.
Ferrier, among a wave of SNP politicians, had previously defeated Labour in 2015. However, she was suspended from her party and later removed from office by a petition of her constituents. Ferrier had tested positive for COVID-19 in September 2020 but traveled over 400 miles back to Scotland instead of isolating, which led to her removal.
SNP leader Humza Yousaf conceded that it was a “disappointing night” for his party. He cited the “difficult circumstances” surrounding Ferrier’s conduct for the setback. Labour will be hoping that this result signifies the beginning of their political comeback in Scotland.
In 2017, Labour managed to regain the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat with an improved performance in Scotland. However, they suffered another setback in 2019 as the SNP once again claimed all but one Scottish seat. In that election, the SNP won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat with a majority of 5,230 votes.
Recent polls indicate that Labour could equal the SNP’s seat count or even emerge as the party with the most seats in Scotland for the first time since 2010. This shift in dynamics can be attributed to the resignation of long-time SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and an ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances.
As the political landscape evolves, Labour’s victory in the Scottish by-election provides a much-needed boost and renewed hope as they gear up for the national election scheduled for next year.
Reporting by Alistair Smout; additional writing by Kate Holton; Editing by Jamie Freed, Michael Perry and Toby Chopra