2023-09-04 18:52:45
“It is important to recognize that, as has happened to other central banks, we underestimate the dynamics of inflation and also its persistence.” The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, wanted with these words to apologize to families for the difficulties that monetary organizations have had when it comes to predicting the uncontrolled rise in prices that has ended up unleashing the cycle of interest rate rises fastest in history, going from 0% to the current 4.25% in just one year.
During a speech organized by the European Economic and Financial Center in London, Lagarde made self-criticism with the management of the monetary agency, but also warned how difficult it is to develop a medium-term prediction in a world “of important transitions in the labor market, energy , geopolitics” in which “everything can lead to bigger and more frequent relative price shocks”.
For this reason, he considers it essential that central banks make an effort in the coming months in their communication policy, with the aim of regaining the favor of the public at a time when, to paraphrase the former president of the US Fed, Ben Bernanke, “the Monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action.
In any case, he recalled that the priority is to keep inflation expectations “firmly anchored” and, although he did not rule on the path that the ECB will take at its next meeting on September 14, his words leave the door open to a new rise in interest rates, perhaps the last of this cycle.
Especially after remembering that “the high inflation we have faced in the last two years is unique.” In addition, he recalled that the CPI in the euro zone remained at 5.3% in August, ending the moderation trend from the peak of more than 10% reached in October 2022.
The market, waiting
The uncertainty surrounding this decision is the one that has weighed the most on financial markets in recent weeks. And on Monday it became clear again with some investors who barely moved positions, also influenced by the closure of Wall Street for the Labor Day holiday in the US. Specifically, the Ibex-35 lost 0.35% at the close to 9,416 points, with more limited losses in the rest of the European stock markets.
The selective will thus start tomorrow at 9,416.3 integers, after IAG led the rises on Monday with a revaluation of 1.7%. The sector as a whole has been highly favored by the good forecasts released this Monday by Ryanair, which has also confirmed a record August driven by the tourism boom. Specifically, the company transported 18.9 million people, 11% more than in the same month of 2022 and bringing the airline closer to a new historical figure for the year as a whole.
In the lower part of the table, Acciona Energía (-3.04%), Telefónica (-1.96%), Naturgy (-1.88%), Acciona (-1.65%), Endesa (-1 .47%) and CaixaBank (-1.22%).
In the absence of the Wall Street reference, investors are also looking at the evolution of the economy in China with uncertainty. But this time, good news came from the Asian giant, where the shares of the Country Garden real estate company -in the spotlight of the market in recent weeks due to doubts about its solvency- shot up 14% after announcing an agreement with creditors for the debt restructuring.
Meanwhile, in the raw materials market, the barrel of Brent oil, a benchmark in Europe, continues to advance and is already trading at $88.91.
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