2023-09-10 06:03:58
Soren Kierkegaard (1813-1855), the father of existentialism and for many a somewhat gloomy philosopher, thought that “life can only be understood retrospectively, looking back, but it is lived forward.” Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), a fan of quotes, used that phrase in her speech at the recent Superbowl of central bankers in Jackson Hole, where everyone, including Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve (FED), ), they left it up in the air whether they would go ahead or not with the increase in interest rates. Lagarde, with her philosophical quote, once again justified – she had already done so on several occasions – the fact that the ECB did not perceive clearly and in advance the rise in inflation that it is now forced to combat with this medicine, more or less painful, which are higher interest rates.
Next Thursday, the 14th, the ECB will have to make a decision again on the price of money. Until now, the policy of the entity, in which Luis de Guindos is vice president, was to be very predictable in its movements. It is not that he no longer wants to be, but that, forced by economic circumstances, he has chosen to embrace the cholista tactic, of Cholo Simeone, of going game by game. Isabel Schnabel, German and very influential member of the Executive Committee of the ECB, has repeated several times in recent weeks that everything will be seen “meeting by meeting”, as she already advanced in Lagarde’s day.
The bets are that the ECB will maintain the current price of money, but there are also arguments for it to raise it again by another quarter of a point. There will be suspense until the last moment.
The ECB also has to make another important decision, in this case especially for Spain and there are many indications that it could be on Wednesday the 13th. It must elect the replacement – the candidates are women – of Andrea Enria at the head of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (MUS). Margarita Delgado, deputy governor of the Bank of Spain and Claudia Buch, number two at the Bundesbank, are the candidates. The Spanish, initially a favorite, has the explicit support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, which is, ultimately, the one who has to endorse the decision adopted by the ECB. The Committee, chaired by the Italian Irene Tinagli, sent a letter to Christine Lagarde at the end of July in which it considered that Margarita Delgado is the most qualified person to occupy that position, a letter that, according to the Bloomberg agency, would not have been circulated. as in theory expected, among the members of the ECB.
Eva María Poptcheva, vice president of that Commission, has also told the same agency that “the European Parliament does not like its official opinion to be ignored. We insist that the opinion we express is taken into consideration and treated with respect.” Unfailing support for the Spanish candidate. Nadia Calviño, almost at the same time, aspires to be elected president of the European Investment Bank (EIB), a position for which she, without false modesty, has said that on Spain’s part “only a candidacy with my name can succeed.” “Any other candidate would be giving up the battle.” Some words that, without a doubt, ran through the pipes of the European institutions and that attracted attention. The acting vice president competes with the Danish Margrethe Vestager, executive vice president of the European Commission responsible for Competition, who has taken the gesture of temporarily leaving her position while she campaigns to occupy that position.
There is a third candidate, the Italian Daniele Franco, former Minister of Finance, but everything indicates that the race is between Calviño and Vestager. The Spanish woman, who longs to return to the European superstructure, if she is not elected, it is also likely that she would not appear in a future Government headed by Pedro Sánchez, who already has candidates – there are some Catalans involved – to replace her at the head. of the Spanish economy which, as Calviño herself is beginning to admit, faces more complicated times. The bankers with whom the vice president met a few days ago to ask them to return more deposits – and they were not reassured by the minister’s words – also understood that they had attended a kind of farewell. She is convinced that she will be elected president of the EIB, but it is always a game until the end. It should be simpler, due to the express institutional support that she has as the best candidate, for Margarita Delgado, but of course life is understood when we look back, but live forward, as Kierkegaard explained.
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