In the eyes of Lebanon, the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel benefits it and is considered a great diplomatic success. The popular saying “with the food comes the appetite” fits the Lebanese feeling. Following the agreement with us, Lebanon storms another maritime border, this time with Syria, in order to demarcate it once and for all. She believes that in the situation created after the agreement with Israel, it will be relatively easy for her to reach a demarcation with Syria.
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President of Lebanon, Michel Aonwho is ending his term these days, called his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Al Assad, and asked to start talks. In order not to leave the issue at the level of a phone call, Aon is sending a high-level delegation to Damascus these days. The delegation is led by the Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Abu Saabwho conducted the demarcation talks with us, will include the head of intelligence Abbas Ebrahim, who had a decisive role behind the scenes in promoting the agreement with Israel.
The Syrian president suggested that the talks be conducted at the level of foreign ministers. In contrast to the demarcation issue with us, where there was a common Israeli-Lebanese interest in settling the dispute, with Syria there is no such common interest. Syria wants to continue with the existing fact that it created on the ground and reject any arrangement with Lebanon. President Aon, aware that he has only a few days left in power, chose to flood the issue with Syria and force his successor to continue negotiations.
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It’s a gamble on his part that I’m not sure will work. As was the case with us, there is a dispute between Lebanon and Syria over an area of 750 square kilometers in the sea. Beirut claims that Syria took over the territory and it is its own. She demands it all for herself. Syria last year allowed the Russian “Capitol” company to search for and produce oil and gas in the disputed area.
The Syrian parliament passed an appropriate law, so Lebanon’s fight against Syria is more difficult than the fight it had against us. The Americans cannot mediate between the two countries because of Washington’s shaky relations with Damascus. It is likely that Syria will offer Moscow to mediate. Since it is likely that Moscow will not stop the work of a Russian gas production company, it seems that Lebanon’s chances are low. On the other hand, Moscow wants to enter the gas field in the Mediterranean, together with Israel, Egypt, Cyprus and Greece. Therefore, an arrangement between Lebanon and Syria will allow it to take control of an invaluable source of energy.
It is also not clear who will be the next president of Lebanon. If a president like Aoun, an ally of Hezbollah and very close to Syria, comes, it will be difficult to move Syria from its position. Despite all this, the last word has not yet been spoken by Lebanon. She has several options, but as mentioned, it remains to be seen which president will be elected and which government will be established. If Beirut decides to go ahead with its claim, there is no doubt that the agreement with us will be an important trump card for it to claim that if it received from its traditional enemy the entire disputed territory, how come a sister country does not do the same?