Lee Jae-myung and Cho Kuk, who take the lead in political affairs, face great difficulties due to ‘judicial risk’

2024-04-13 22:37:55

[4·10 총선] Cho Kuk and Lee Jae-myung appear in court immediately after the general election ahead of Supreme Court ruling, presidential election influenced by judiciary decision

In addition, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, won a major victory in the April 10 general election and will take the lead in future political affairs. Representative Cho Kuk of the Fatherland Innovation Party, which made great strides in this general election, secured 12 seats through proportional representation and secured a solid position in the National Assembly. However, a big obstacle called ‘judicial risk’ lies ahead of these two opposition leaders. As he has been indicted and is on trial, it is a sensitive situation in which his future presidential bid and political life can be greatly influenced by the judiciary’s judgment.

● Cho Kuk, who says he will exercise when he goes to prison

The person facing judicial risk right away is Representative Cho. He was indicted on charges of corruption in his children’s entrance exams, neglecting the Blue House’s inspection, and violating the Anti-Graft Act, and was found guilty until the appeals court (see Table 1). In response to allegations of corruption in children’s entrance exams, CEO Cho protested, saying, “I did not know much about children’s entrance exams because I was involved in social activities.” Regarding the suspicion of ignoring the inspection of former Busan City Deputy Mayor for Economic Affairs Yoo Jae-soo, he claimed, “I can only express my opinion,” but the court did not acknowledge this. On February 8, the appellate court found him guilty of corruption in his children’s entrance exam, failing to inspect the Blue House, and violating the anti-graft law and sentenced him to two years in prison. Currently, this case is pending in the Supreme Court.

Considering the trial practices so far, it is predicted that the final decision of the Supreme Court will likely be made within this year. If the Supreme Court finds him guilty, Representative Cho will have to serve two years in prison and lose his seat as a member of the National Assembly. Furthermore, as he loses his right to be elected for five years, it becomes impossible for him to run for the next presidential election. In another case, the Supreme Court issued a judgment to quash and remand some charges, such as the failure to inspect Yoo Jae-soo. However, even in this case, the general view in the legal community is that since the court in the remand case must issue a sentence in accordance with the intent of the Supreme Court ruling, the trial period will only be slightly extended and the outcome is unlikely to change. Therefore, even if the case is quashed and remanded, the final ruling and whether or not CEO Cho will be imprisoned will likely be decided no later than next summer.

Representative Cho also acknowledged the possibility of going to prison during the general election. On April 1, he appeared on broadcaster Kim Eo-jun’s YouTube channel ‘Kim Eo-jun’s Humility is Difficult News Factory’ and said, “I don’t know if the two-year prison sentence will remain the same, or if it will be partially overturned and commuted,” but added, “I’m reading books that I couldn’t read because I was busy with the trial and politics. “I have to work hard to take care of my health by doing push-ups, squats, and planks to get out (of prison),” he said.

Since Representative Lee is being tried in the first trial as a defendant only on some charges, he has relatively time to spare. However, it is also not a situation where one can be reassured. Representative Lee is accused of the most crimes among the lawmakers who entered the 22nd National Assembly. There are various types of charges, including breach of trust under the Aggravated Punishment for Specific Economic Crimes Act (Special Police Act), bribery under the Aggravated Punishment for Specific Crimes Act (Special Price Act), violation of the Anti-Corruption Act, violation of the Conflict of Interest Prevention Act, and violation of the Public Official Election Act (see Table 2).

● Final ruling is not until March 2027

Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending a hearing regarding violations of the Public Official Election Act held at the Seoul Central District Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul on April 12.[뉴스1]

Representative Lee is being investigated or tried for 7 cases and 10 charges, of which the cases related to Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, Wirye, and Seongnam FC have been merged and the first trial is in progress. He appeared at the trial on April 9, just before the general election. On April 12, Representative Lee also attended a trial on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act held at the Seoul Central District Court’s Criminal Agreement Division 34 (Presiding Judge Han Seong-jin). He is being tried on charges of publishing false information under the Public Official Election Act in relation to his statement in a media interview that he did not know about the late Kim Moon-ki, former head of Development Division 1 of Seongnam Urban Development Corporation. He is being tried on charges.

Representative Lee has solidified his position as a strong next presidential candidate as the Democratic Party and the Democratic Alliance secured 175 seats in this general election. The key is what the court’s final ruling will be on the 10 charges by March 2027, when President Yoon Seok-yeol’s term ends. If the sentence is not confirmed by this period, Representative Lee can run for president again, but the opposite case is also possible. If a fine of more than 1 million won is confirmed for violating the Public Official Election Act, Representative Lee will lose his seat in the National Assembly and his right to be elected will be restricted for five years, making it impossible for him to run for president. Likewise, if a sentence of imprisonment or higher is confirmed in a major case such as the suspicion of Daejang-dong development corruption, he will lose his seat as a member of the National Assembly, and depending on the sentence, there may be restrictions on his ability to run for president.

Shin Yul, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Myongji University, said, “It is not easy to predict the judicial risks facing the two at this point,” but added, “It appears that the two people competing for leadership in the next political situation will not walk together.”


<이 기사는 Weekly Donga No. 1435It was published in >

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2024-04-13 22:37:55