The rule has been in place since 2007, and maintained this year: any minister defeated in the legislative elections will have to leave his government post. The results of the first round, which was held this Sunday, are rather enough to reassure the 15 ministers in the running in a constituency. For some of them, however, the second round is far from a foregone conclusion. Review of details.
They are almost sure to win
Eight ministers are in a very favorable ballot for the second round, given the score obtained this Sunday, those of their competitors, as well as the expected carryovers. This is particularly the case of the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, who obtained more than 34% of the votes in the 6th constituency of Calvados, ie 10 points more than the candidate Nupes Noé Gauchard. In Loir-et-Cher, the Minister of Agriculture Marc Fesneau also came out well ahead, with almost 32% of the votes cast.
In Ain, the Minister of Solidarity Damian Abad, accused of rape and sexual assault (which he strongly denies), also finished first with more than 33% of the vote. This is 10 points more than his opponent from Nupes, Florence Pisani. The Minister Delegate in charge of Public Accounts Gabriel Attal won 48.1% of the vote in the 10th constituency of Hauts-de-Seine, 17 more than his opponent from Nupes, Cécile Soubelet.
In the North, the Minister of the Interior Gerald Darmanin also turned largely in the lead, with nearly 39% of the votes cast against 23% for the Nupes candidate Leslie Mortreux. Same very favorable situation for the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussoptwho came first with 30% of the vote in the 2nd constituency of Ardèche, and for his colleague in charge of Overseas Yael Braun-Pivetwhich obtained nearly 37% of the votes in the 5th constituency of Yvelines.
In the 12th district of Paris, the government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire finished first with nearly 40% of the vote. She is well ahead of the candidate Nupes Céline Malaisé (22% of the vote), and she should be able to count on significant vote transfers from the right.
They have a good chance of being elected
For some ministers, victory seems likely, but not necessarily certain. Franck RiesterMinister Delegate for Foreign Trade and Attractiveness, finished first in the 5th constituency of Seine-et-Marne… but only 4 points ahead of his opponent in the second round.
In Isère, the Minister Delegate in charge of Relations with Parliament and Democratic Life Olivier Veran obtains more than 40% of the votes. He is only 4 points ahead, but the vote transfers should allow him to win in the second round.
They will have to fight
Some members of the government will have to fight during this week between the two rounds which is beginning if they want to win… and therefore save their jobs. In Pas-de-Calais, the Minister of Health Brigitte Bourguignon finished first with more than 32% of the vote. The gap with her opponent RN is quite small (less than 2 points), but she can hope to attract a good part of LR voters to her name.
The Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin, candidate in Guadeloupe, is on waivers with a 4-point lead. The vote reports on the left could cause her to stumble next Sunday.
The situation looks more complicated for other members of the government. In the 6th constituency of Essonne, the Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion Amelie de Montchalin is in unfavorable tie. She finished second, 7 points behind the Nupes candidate Jérôme Guedj.
Same complicated situation for his colleague in charge of European Affairs, Clement Beaune2nd with 35.8% of the votes in the 7th constituency of Paris, and for the one in charge of the Civil Service, Stanislas Guerinisecond and behind by 6 points.