The cross : Does China’s economic woes mark the height of its influence on the world stage?
Francois Godement: In the short term, the slowdown in the Chinese economy does not affect the reality of China’s external economic and political influence. Chinese exports are no longer increasing, but the foreign trade surplus is large and foreign investment flows to China remain considerable. China is part, with Russia and Saudi Arabia, of the three countries in the world having a surplus balance of payments, and its financial weight does not decrease. On the other hand, the demographic slowdown and the reduction of the active population will undoubtedly have a long-term impact on its economic power.
Do these challenges have an impact on domestic politics?
F. G. : The housing and consumption support policy represents a temporary political change in response to these difficulties. Similarly, Beijing is once again smiling at international investors and asserting that China is open to them, without, however, implementing a program of reforms. The authoritarian turn taken by Xi Jinping prevents a stronger evolution towards the market economy.
After a reorganization and the imposition by the Chinese Communist Party of its absolute right of access to data, the tone is now more favorable to Internet platforms. This temporary moderation also manifests itself in public diplomacy, which is suddenly less strident. Paradoxically, this adjustment comes after an unprecedented turn of the screw inside the leading group, with the elimination of all those who could one day embody a hypothesis of reform.
Will Chinese foreign policy change?
F. G. : Years of hardening Chinese foreign policy with ‘wolf fighter’ diplomacy (an aggressive and nationalist defense of Beijing’s interests, editor’s note) and militarization ended up causing a backlash that is not limited to the United States. Japan has decided to double its military budget. Taiwan reinstated one-year military service. South Korea’s arms industry is growing, including exports.
The United States has formed a military alliance in the Indo-Pacific with Australia and the United Kingdom. And Europe has tightened its trade policy and strengthened its policy of combating Chinese influence. This reaction does not concern countries that are financially and commercially dependent on Beijing, those that sell raw materials and energy to it, or that have large companies with a strong presence in the Chinese market.
In response to this counter-offensive, China is adjusting its public diplomacy by adopting a less aggressive rhetoric, symbolized by the appointment of Qin Gang, a former ambassador to Washington, as foreign minister. But this change is not reflected in action. China pursues an all-out arms policy.
In recent weeks, Beijing has strengthened its military and strategic cooperation with Moscow, with joint naval maneuvers in the East China Sea, intensified its military pressure on Taiwan and its incursions into the disputed Senkaku Islands with Japan, not to mention the resumption of policy of incidents between Chinese and Indian soldiers on the Himalayan border.
What is Xi Jinping’s goal?
F. G. : China will continue to defend its economic interests, its territorial claims and seek to restructure the world order to its advantage. President Xi Jinping never said that China would overtake the US economy, but that it would come first, that is, in the first. The official Chinese discourse has always consisted in presenting China as a non-hegemonic state, in opposition to an attitude attributed by Beijing to America and the West.